Givin Props: NFL Week 6

Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers looks on during a time out in the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland.
Image Credit: Rob Carr/Getty Images

Each week, BetPrep’s Player Prop Guru and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses how the site’s historical data shaped his picks with Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Props Podcast.

Brad, 6-3 last week and now 30-17 on the show for the season. Let’s start with a bet type we’ve yet to see from you this season: CeeDee Lamb Over 24.5 yards for his longest catch.

Brad: I haven’t done many bets like this. I stumbled on this one. Here’s a few things I like about this bet and a few things I love. I’ll start with the like  14-7 in his career to the Over. So winning two of three is pretty good. But then I delved even deeper. Last nine games, 7-2 Over a 24.5-yard catch. And here’s what I loved: He’s played 10 career games with Dak Prescott and he’s 9-1 in those games Over this bet.

Back to the one of your most favorite bets of late, QB rushing props. This time: Justin Fields Over 12.5 rushing yards for the game (not just his longest carry). 

Brad: I won this bet with Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff. I lost with Tom Brady last week. And for The Athletic, I lost with Carson Wentz. I laid over 40 yards previously with this Justin Fields bet and now 12.5. He’s 0-3 on 12.5. This is not a math play. Matt Nagy keeps saying, “We don’t want to run Fields because the opponents expect us to run with him.” And I keep thinking, “Do the Ravens do this with Lamar Jackson? The Bills with Josh Allen?” Jalen Hurts runs a 4.7 40 not a 4.4 like Fields. The coach is so backwards, it’s just weird. But here’s the thing: 12.5 I just need one freakin’ play.  And Fields is one of the fastest quarterbacks in the NFL.

Ben Roethlisberger Under 255.5 passing yards. And this is the Seattle defense by the way that is tied for the NFL record by yielding 45-plus total yards in four straight games. 

Brad: I know, I know. There are two plays I made today which were situational plays. As much as me betting the player, I’m betting the situation when I see a game like this. Pittsburgh really does want to run the ball. The defense should control Geno Smith. I think Pittsburgh wants to win this game where Ben’s not throwing the ball that much. If Russell Wilson was playing this game, I never would have made this bet in fact I’ll go as far to say I would have been on the Over. I’m not expecting Seattle to be leading this game, to be dominating this game. If they do, I’ll lose. But I think gameplay will be on my side. And I’m going to take my chances here on the Under.

You’re back to the well with Aaron Rodgers over 1.5 passing touchdowns, laying juice, this time minus–190.

Brad: I went on this week and I said he was 22-3 on this bet and guess what, he’s 23-3 now Over here. Do I think I should be laying 9-to-1 here? No, of course not. But I really do think this should be in the minus-270 to minus-300 range. The negative is they’re playing the Bears, so probably a lower scoring game in line with the 44 O/U with Bubble Boy Justin Fields in at QB. But the Packers implied total is 25. Rodgers has had success against Chicago in the past. So I’m going to roll with Rodgers here and, if he gets one touchdown, it’s going to hurt for sure.

Similarly, Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing TDs layng even more juice, minus-210 against a struggling Ravens defense.

Brad: I actually like this one more. The math on it actually isn’t as good. Using BetPrep, he’s only 13-5 Over but that still translates to minus-260. Last three games, Herbert has thrown 11 touchdown passes. And then here’s the other thing, the other beautiful thing about this — their head coach. It will be fourth down and whatever they’re not kidding. They’re letting Herbert go for it. It’s like they’re allergic to field goals. Kicking is not even in their vocabulary. So he should be minus-260 historically. But based on this, going forward, I expect him to go 9-3 at least on this bet so minus-210 is a bargain.

Latavius Murray Over 42.5 rushing yards.

Brad: I can’t stand Murray the player. I’m sure he’s a great guy. But here’s why I did this. The last two weeks, his snap rate is 62% and 49%. Coach Harbaugh seems to like him. So that’s all that counts. But here’s the main reason I like this: The Chargers run defense has allowed 160 freakin’ rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. Even adjusting Murray down to under 5.0 per carry, he needs just nine carries to go Over. This is 100% a situational play and 0% to do with the player.

Robert Tonyan Under 30.5 receiving yards.

Brad: Last year, he averaged 35 yards a game. But in his last eight games, he’s 7-1 Under. And in this period, according to BetPrep, he’s averaging only 16 yards per game so half of what the number is. Beyond the 7-1 Under, he’s hit only 20 yards one time. So he’s not even close. If I lose this bet, I will sleep like a newborn baby.

Van Jefferson you like Under 3.5 catches, minus-150.

Brad: This year, he’s 3-2 Under, which is perfectly minus-150. So why do I like this? One of the games, they fell behind Arizona by 96,000 points. I don’t expect that as a 10-point favorite. And the other one was against Tampa Bay, against whom no one runs the ball. Again, here, I feel I have game script on my side.