Givin Props: NFL Week 13

Josh Jacobs #28 of the Las Vegas Raiders rushes for a touchdown during the first half in the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Allegiant Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Image Credit: Steve Marcus/Getty Images

Each week, BetPrep’s Player Prop Guru and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses how the site’s historical data shaped his picks with Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Props Podcast.

Brad, 4-3 last week with a couple of bad beats but still 73-35 for the season. So let’s start this week with the Bucs and Mike Evans, who’s coming off a week in that Colts game where he was barely involved. But this week you like him Over 60.5 receiving yards against the Falcons.

Feinberg: And I get that issue with him doing nothing in the Colts game and also a little fear with Tampa Bay being a double-digit favorite, which suggests less passing volume. Maybe the game flow hurts. But I’m really not worried. Evans has gone Over this seven of his last 10 games. There’s still no Antonio Brown (suspension for a fraudulent COVID vaccine card). The Falcons don’t scare me as a defense. He and Godwin are comparable for me and Godwin’s 10-11 yards higher. Sure Godwin has more yards this year but Evans is getting air yards, 13.2 air yards per target to 7.5 for Godwin. So he doesn’t need many targets from Brady to hit the Over. Evans is the only player in NFL history to have seven-straight 1,000-yard seasons to start his career. I think he’ll get it again. I’d have this O/U at 66 or 67 and that’s a big difference.

Those yards will have to come from someone and you like Rob Gronkowski Under 55.5 yards. 

Feinberg: Look, I’ll be honest here: This is one where I could really be making a mistake. Because he’s been great. I may be a little stubborn here. But I’m going back further. He’s Under 19 of his last 27 games. That’s two out of three games, despite this recent hot streak. And again, maybe he really has found the Fountain of Youth and he is that good.

My narrative-street take here is that he went over 100 yards last week for the first time this season and the 30th time in his career, one short of the all-time NFL record of 31 100-yard receiving games for a tight end, held by Tony Gonzalez. This may be Gronk’s last season, there aren’t that many games left. I believe Brady will try to get him 100-yard games and we’re running out of games. 

Feinberg: I think that is a fair thing that I did not put into my handicap. And that could be a very, very valid point. You just scared me with what you just said. But again, this is the one I liked the least when I made it.

Another hot player you like Under: Hunter Renfrow Under 65.5 receiving yards. 

Feinberg: He’s gone Under this 31 to 40 in his career. And he’s Under seven of his last eight this year, and eight of 11 year to date. So in a spectacular year, he’s still a good bet on average to go Under. He’s also the opposite of Evans with air yards so he may get six, seven catches and still go Under. The Washington Football Team is actually playing pretty well defensively. This doesn’t mean Renfrow can’t get a 66 yards, I just think this number’s too high, I would have made it around 56.5 or so. I think it’s about nine yards too high, which is substantial.

Along the same lines, you like Derek Carr Under 36.5 pass attempts.

Feinberg: I just think it’s too high. He’s gone Under six times in his last eight games this year. I believe they want to run it more. I think this game’s going to be slower paced. And again, no Darren Waller on top of it. I would have made Carr’s O/U closer to 34.5 attempts. The difference is huge because there’s a real chance it lands on 35 or 36. That’s why I think it’s a 60% winning bet, based on the 36.5 number.

Also related to this, Josh Jacobs, sort of a forgotten man in fantasy, Over 13.5 rushing attempts. He’s coming off a 22-carry game against the Raiders, three of which came in overtime. 

Feinberg: This is my bet of the week.  We always talk about who I would like to have going forward on my fantasy football playoffs. Jacobs would be a guy that would be taking right now. I’d be all alone on that street. One of the gambling sites has a thing where you could get 3.5 units if you move this winning number to 17. This is one where I feel like, if I lose, he’s gonna get 12 or 13. And if I win, he’s gonna get anywhere between 14 and 25. So I’m winning with 11 numbers and losing with two. Jacobs is healthy. This is just a really, really strong play.

For the rest of Brad’s picks, listen to the full podcast here.