College Basketball Trends Report: Saturday, February 26

Jabari Smith #10 of the Auburn Tigers reacts late in the second half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn Arena on January 22, 2022 in Auburn, Alabama.
Image Credit: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

The final weekend before March has arrived in college basketball and eight of the AP top-10 teams will be on the road Saturday. Here are BetPrep’s key trends for Saturday’s biggest NCAA Men’s Basketball games.

No. 4 Purdue (-3) at Michigan State

12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN (O/U: 147)

Purdue enters Saturday’s matchup in East Lansing on a roll, winning nine of its last 10 games and three straight overall. The Boilermakers hammered Rutgers 84-72 on Sunday and entered play tied with Wisconsin for the top spot in the Big Ten.

On the other side, the Spartans are in a bit of a free fall. After starting 14-2 overall and 5-0 in league play, MSU has dropped seven of its last 11 games and is now trying to hold on to its slim hopes of making the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue Key Trends

  • The Over is 11-5 in the Boilermakers’ last 16 games overall.
  • The Over is 10-3 in Purdue’s last 13 games coming off a win.
  • The Favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams.

Michigan State Key Trends

  • The Spartans are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • Michigan State has dropped six of its last eight home games ATS.
  • The Over is 7-3-1 in Sparty’s last 11 home games.

No. 6 Kentucky (+2.5) at No. 18 Arkansas

2:00 p.m. ET, CBS (O/U: 147)

Kentucky only has a one-game lead on Arkansas for second place in the SEC, so today’s matchup in Fayetteville is huge. If the Wildcats remain a betting underdog, it will be the 19th time an AP top-10 Kentucky is an underdog under John Calipari (since 2009-10). According to ESPN Stats & Informational Group, over the previous 18 times UK has been a dog, the Wildcats are 8-10 straight up and 10-8 against the spread.

Kentucky Key Trends

  • The Wildcats are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.
  • The Under is 7-2 in Kentucky’s last nine road games.
  • The Under is 56-27 in the Wildcats’ last 83 games coming off a win.

Arkansas Key Trends

  • The Razorbacks are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.
  • The Hogs are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games versus an opponent that owns a winning record.

No. 3 Auburn (+3.5) at No. 17 Tennessee

4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN (O/U: 139.5)

Auburn’s dynamic frontcourt of Walker Kessler and leading scorer Jabari Smith will be tested by a Tennessee team that is a perfect 14-0 at home this season. Three of those 14 victories came against ranked teams Kentucky, Arizona and LSU, so the Vols won’t be intimidated by No. 3 Auburn today.

That said, the Tigers have won the past six meetings between these two teams, which is a streak that dates back to the 2017-18 season. The last meeting between these two teams occurred almost a year ago today, with Auburn beating Tennessee 77-72 as an 8-point home dog.

Auburn Key Trends

  • The Tigers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
  • Auburn is winless against the number in its last four road games.
  • The Over is 16-4-1 in the Tigers’ last 21 games when facing an opponent with a winning record.

Tennessee Key Trends

  • The Home Team is 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings between these two teams.
  • The Over is 12-3-1 in the Vols’ last 16 games when facing an opponent with a winning record.
  • Tennessee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games coming off an ATS win.

No. 5 Kansas (+3) at No. 10 Baylor

7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN (O/U: 150)

This will be the 66th time in which Kansas coach Bill Self finds himself in an AP Top 10 matchup, which is the fourth-most of any coach. Among the 35 coaches to coach in at least 20 Top 10 matchups, Self’s .662 winning percentage (43-22) is the second best, trailing only the great John Wooden (.780).

Baylor lost by 24 points to Kansas earlier this season and has won just three of the last eight meetings between these two programs. On the bright side, the Bears were just 3-22 in the first 25 BU-KU matchups, but Baylor is 3-5 over the last eight meetings in games coached by Scott Drew.

Kansas Key Trends

  • The Road Team is 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings between these two teams.
  • The Underdog has cashed in four of the last five KU-Baylor games.
  • The Jayhawks have covered five of their last seven games overall.

Baylor Key Trends

  • The Bears are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
  • Baylor failed to cover in four of its last five games coming off a win.
  • The Over is 19-9 in the Bears’ last 28 home games.

No. 1 Gonzaga (-10) at No. 23 Saint Mary’s

10:00 p.m. ET, ESPN (O/U: 144)

No. 1 Gonzaga is outsourcing teams by 24.6 points per game this season, which would be the highest since 1998-99 Duke (+24.7) according to ESPN Stats & Informational Group. That Blue Devil team reached the National Championship before falling to UConn.

Since 2015-16, the Bulldogs have four losses against Saint Mary’s. All other conference opponents have three wins combined against Gonzaga during that span, so that’s quite a feat for the Gaels when you put things into perspective.

Gonzaga Key Trends

  • The Bulldogs are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
  • Gonzaga is 8-3-2 ATS in its last 13 games overall.
  • The Under has cashed in five of the Bulldogs’ last six games overall.

Saint Mary’s Key Trends

  • The Home Team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.
  • The Gaels are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
  • Saint Mary’s has covered in four of its last five games as a home dog.