Betting systems are typically only used by sharp bettors or the “pros”. Does this mean betting systems really work? Yes and no. Let’s dive into the basics and see what a betting system is and how the pros think about creating and using betting systems.
What is a Betting System?
A betting system is set of pre-determined rules that automatically trigger a bet whenever the rules are true. This allows the bettor to be systematic in his approach and only place bets when profitable conditions are present.
Betting with a system can help control emotions, avoid betting on tilt, eliminate impulse betting, and give the bettor a quantified performance record. This can help the bettor make improvements and gain insights on how to improve verses the bettor who only bets on gut feel or based on in-the-moment information.
A betting system is rarely better in the short-term than a streaky tout, but in the long-run a betting system that sticks to the pre-defined rules will almost always outperform the emotional tout. We believe in helping bettors achieve long-term success and that is best done by following systems and betting like a pro.
What is an example profitable betting system
A simple betting system is to only bet when road teams, coming off a double-digit loss, are touchdown or more underdogs. For this betting system to place a bet, all three conditions would need to be true. This betting system’s conditions are:
- Playing on the road
- Lost last game by 10 or more
- Spread dogs of 7+ or more
If all three conditions are true, then the betting system would place a bet or notify (via alerts) the bettor that a game should be investigated.
More importantly, having a betting system allows bettors to view historical data and view how often teams meeting these criteria have performed.
If a bettor knew that teams meeting these criteria covered over 65% of the time, would it change how he bet? Absolutely. On the other hand, if teams meeting these criteria only covered 42% of the time would it change how he bet? Absolutely. Data is power. Data is money.
To find out if these rules are profitable, please check out this quick YouTube video where we show how you can test this idea (and thousands of others) with our Bet Builder.
What were the best betting systems of last NFL season?
Best betting systems will be judged based on total dollars won during the previous NFL season. However, we will continue to update this post as the years go by to contain the most profitable betting systems. To track in season please create a free account and get started.
Please note this betting systems are meant to serve as a starting point for your own systems and should not be blindly followed! Without further ado…
Against The Spread System
The most profitable Against the Spread system made $2,596 betting $100 on 87 bets. It covered the spread an amazing 66.67% of the time in the 2021-2022 NFL season. This system would bet on any team
- Moneyline +300 or less
- Travel Miles more than 300 mi.
Moneyline System
The most profitable Moneyline system made $4,497.18 on $100 bets throughout the 2021-2022 NFL season. This system bet every time a spread underdog of 7 or less played an opponent with a total point differential of 200 or less.
- Spread +7 or Less
- Opponent Point Differential (Total) +200 or Less
Over System
The most profitable Over System had three rules required before placing a bet. However, this Over System made $2,325 placing $100 bets during the 2021-2022 NFL season.
This system needs a team that had 3 or more redzone possessions last game and 2 players with 2 or more Rush TDs this season. This qualifier can rule out some games early in the season.
Additionally, anytime a qualifying team played an opponent with a win percentage over 55% the bet was to the over which hit 65.43% of the time.
- Redzone Possessions Last Game 3 or More
- 2 Players with Rush TDs 2 or More
- Opponent Winning Percentage .550 or More
All the systems listed below exclude playoff games and use fixed unit sizing (explained below).
How to size bets in a betting system
There are various approaches to sizing a betting system; however, the two most popular methods are fixed unit sizing and percentage of bankroll sizing.
Fixed Unit Sizing
This bet sizing method chooses a fixed dollar amount to represent 1 unit. Typical unit sizes are $50 or $100 per bet. Each bet the bettor would place the same unit size. This spreads his risk evenly across bets and can avoid giving back large amounts of earnings on one or two bad, oversized bets.
Unit sizing requires discipline to adhere. Additionally, many bettors will increase their unit size as the overall bankroll hits new milestones. For example, a bettor may continue betting $100 per unit until his total bankroll grows from $10,000 to $20,000. Once the bettor achieves $20,000 total bankroll then he may increase his unit size to $200, e.g.
Percent of Bankroll
Betting a percent of bankroll allows the bet sizes to increase or decrease as the bettor’s overall success increases or decreases. The bettor would select a percentage, typically 1-2%, and bet that amount of his entire bankroll on every bet.
This style of betting spreads risk evenly across bets and increases betting as the bettors does well and decreases betting as the bettor hits inevitable cold streaks.
Both Fixed and Percent style – and more – sizing are available options in the BetPrep Pro Backtester.
Where to find profitable betting systems
Many naïve bettors pay for touts, picks and “experts”. However, these stories all end the same. Betprep set out to build a better way, backed by data, so bettors could build a business and not just pay for some guy’s lucky guesses.
BetPrep’s Hot Systems calculate nearly 20,000 betting filters covering everything from player stats, team stats, match up stats, game conditions, weather, travel, betting odds, line movement, etc. and then find the best betting strategies for you.
We then filter the best strategies to which ones have been hot lately – winning 7 or more bets of their last ten. You can view these bets for any period, any league with BetPrep Pro. You can even receive alerts and best odds with the data driven picks the Hot Systems make.
Head here to see to the most current Hot Systems or check out this quick video introduction:
How to BetPrep: Hot Systems – YouTube
How to Build a Betting System
BetPrep offers thousands of potential filters to build a betting system that cover all angles of the game including but not limited to
- Team Stats
- Opponent Stats
- Player Stats
- Game Conditions
- Weather
- Betting Lines, Movement
- Streaks
- Injuries
So how do we begin building a betting system with all these factors? BetPrep has all these plus more built-in so all you have to do is select and click and you can test on 10+ years of historical data.
Step 1
Head to BetPrep’s Backtester and set up your initial conditions. What league, how many seasons of data, what betting style. These are all basics. For example, the simplest would be NFL testing on the past 3 seasons and looking for spread bets.
Step 2
Start adding your filters. There is a vast library of pre-built filters but you can also build your own under the ‘Custom’ option. Below is an example of how to select teams averaging 150 or more rush yards per game.
Step 3
Hit Simulate or head to the Results tab to view the betting system results. Here you can view the betting rules each system uses and each system’s performance over the selected historical data. After finding a system you want to monitor, track or bet, please add it to your portfolio or enable alerts. BetPrep will monitor all the rules and send you emails whenever a team or game meets the conditions. Lazy betting has never been so smart.
On the other hand, you can leverage the power of BetPrep and have our engine find betting systems for you. You can simply select ALL the rules and BetPrep will quickly return the best betting systems using the inputs you provide it. This is a huge TIME SAVER for bettors focusing on multiple markets, leagues, and periods.
Need to Know
- Betting systems follow specific rules
- If the rules are true then bet, if not do not bet
- Betting Systems remove emotions and allow bettors to focus on edge
- Historical data can help isolate opportunities for profitable betting
- BetPrep offers the hottest betting systems and already filtered by recent performance
- BetPrep offers the ability to build and test your own betting systems on 10+ years of data
Summary
Betting Systems and Betting Strategies are the fastest growing segment of the sports betting industry. More and more professional risk takers understand the importance of utilizing data and having a systematic approach to extract profits from the sportsbooks. The sportsbooks cannot price everything perfectly, all the time. Building betting systems that can find and isolate these opportunities can be a tremendous edge for the sports bettor. Build your own betting system with Betprep today.