NFL Divisional Round Trends: Bills-Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs scrambles out of the pocket during a 34-28 win over the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on December 16, 2021 in Inglewood, California.
Image Credit: Harry How/Getty Images

Sunday – AFC Divisional Round

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

(Line: KC -2, O/U 54)

Buffalo Bills

Among the relevant trends here, the Bills are 39-28-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $820 from a straight $110 bet. For this period, Buffalo posted solid ATS marks when playing on the road (20-12-2, $680), facing AFC competition (28-23-2, $270) and encountering top-five offenses (10-5, $450). The 2021 ATS numbers are also productive, with the Bills going 11-6-1 overall ($440), 5-3 on the road ($170) and 8-5 versus AFC foes ($250). Citing another trend, Buffalo is 8-2 ATS from the last 10 times its implied odds for victory were less than 60 percent ($580). For the 2021-22 campaign, the Bills ranked fourth overall in takeaways (11 fumble recoveries, 19 INTs). The Bills offense also ranked third in scoring offense (28.4 ppg) and fifth in total offense (381.9 yards per game).

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are 41-32-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $580 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Kansas City enjoyed robust ATS results when facing teams with winning records (26-18-1, $620) and taking on AFC competition (33-22, $880). The ATS numbers for 2021 are pedestrian, though, at 9-9 overall (minus-$90), 5-5 at home (minus-$50) and 9-9 as the betting favorite (minus-$90). Citing other trends, Kansas City has a 7-1 ATS when immediately following up its last eight straight-up victories ($590). Conversely, the Chiefs have failed to cover their last six encounters with the Bills … when Buffalo rushed for 100-plus yards the previous week (minus-$660). Kansas City notched the fourth-most defensive touchdowns this season (4). The Chiefs offense ranked third in total offense (396.8 yards per game), fourth in passing offense (281.8 yards) and fourth in scoring offense (28.2 ppg).

Total Trends

For the season, Buffalo and Kansas City 9-9 and 11-6-1 to the Over, respectively, for a combined 20-15-1 ($350). Chronicling their last five head-to-head meetings, including Buffalo’s 38-20 road rout in Week 5, the Bills and Chiefs own combined averages of 48.2 points per game — well below Sunday’s total. Also, the Bills have failed to hit the Under in their last eight games as underdogs (minus-$880).