Saturday NFL Divisional Round Trends
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
(Line: TEN -3.5, O/U 47.5)
Cincinnati Bengals
Factoring in recent trends, the Bengals are 35-30-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2018. That’s $200 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Cincinnati posted strong ATS results when playing on the road (20-12, $680), facing AFC competition (29-19-1, $810) and taking on winning teams (19-12, $580). The 2021 ATS numbers are also encouraging, at 11-7 overall ($330), 6-3 as the betting underdog ($270) and 9-4 versus AFC foes ($460). Also, the Bengals are 7-1 ATS from the last eight times their opponent scored 18-plus points the previous week ($590). This year’s Bengals had a No. 7 ranking for both passing offense (averaging 259.0 yards per game) and scoring offense (27.1 ppg). Cincinnati also had the league’s fifth-best rush defense, allowing 102.5 ground yards per game.
Tennessee Titans
Among the relevant trends, the Titans are 35-33-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$130 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Tennessee posted underwhelming ATS marks when playing at home (17-16-1, minus-$60), facing AFC competition (25-26-1, minus-$360) and serving as the betting favorite (15-19-1, minus-$590). The ATS numbers for 2021 are somewhat better, with the Titans going 10-7 overall ($230), 6-3 at home ($270) and 5-2 versus teams with winning records ($280). The Titans are 8-1 ATS ($690) the last nine times their pregame total exceeded 45 points. (It’s 47.5 for Saturday.) Tennessee owned the NFL’s second-best rush defense this season, allowing only 84.6 yards per game. The Titans offense ranked fifth in rushing offense (141.4 ypg), spurred on by pre-injury Derrick Henry rushing for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns in the season’s first half. Henry’s slated to return to the lineup Saturday.
Total Trends
For the season, Cincinnati and Tennessee are 8-10 and 8-9 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 16-19 (minus-$490). Charting their last six head-to-head meetings, the Bengals and Titans tallied combined averages of 43.0 points per game — a tick below Saturday’s total. Citing other trends, the Bengals have hit the Over just once in their last 10 January games (minus-$890). Also, chronicling the last five Cincinnati-Tennessee matchups, the Over is merely 1-3-1 … when the Titans’ implied odds for victory are less than 70 percent (minus-$230).