THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: WEEK 15
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
(Line: LAC +3, O/U 51.5)
Kansas City Chiefs
Among the relevant trends, the Chiefs are 33-27-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $330 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Kansas City posted solid ATS marks when playing on the road (18-10-1, $700), facing teams with winning records (18-14-1, $260) and encountering AFC competition (26-18, $620). The ATS numbers for 2021 are less encouraging, with the Chiefs going 6-7 overall (minus-$170), 3-4 versus winning clubs (minus-$140), and 6-7 as the betting favorite (minus-$170). With other trends, Kansas City has an 18-3 ATS record from the last 21 times it had averaged fewer than 400 total yards per game ($1470). Conversely, the Chiefs are 2-9 ATS when tracking the last 11 times their opponent covered the spread the previous week (minus-$790). Kansas City’s defense has been surging since Week 6, allowing only 13.1 points per game during this span. This season, the Chiefs offense ranks fourth in total offense (389.6 yards per game), sixth in passing offense (averaging 277.9 yards), eighth in scoring offense (27.0 points per game), and 16th in rushing offense (averaging 111.7 yards).
Los Angeles Chargers
Factoring in recent trends, the Chargers are 29-30-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$400 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Los Angeles endured shaky ATS results when playing at home (10-20-1, minus-$1200), facing AFC foes (19-23-2, minus-$630), and kicking off in the Pacific Time Zone (13-20-1, minus-$900). The ATS numbers for 2021 are slightly better, at 7-6 overall ($40), 3-2 versus winning teams ($80), and 3-1 as the betting underdog ($190). Entering Week 15, L.A.’s porous rush defense ranks 31st overall, allowing 140.7 yards per game. The Chargers offense ranks fifth in passing offense (averaging 280.3 yards), sixth in total offense (385.2 yards), eighth in scoring offense (27.0 points per game), and 21st in rushing offense (104.9 yards). Note that COVID is heavily impacting both teams and rosters are in flux.
The Chiefs and Chargers are both 22-22-1 with the Over since the 2019 season (minus-$240). All combined, that’s a 44-44-2 track record with the Over (minus-$480) and, when betting the Under, minus-$480. For 2021, Kansas City and Los Angeles are also both 6-6-1 with the Over for a combined 12-12-2 (minus-$120). Chronicling the last six head-to-head meetings, the Chiefs and Chargers own combined averages of 51 points per game — just below Sunday’s 51.5 total. Citing other trends, the Under is 4-1 with the last five Chiefs-Chargers games, in which Los Angeles was less than a five-point underdog ($290). Conversely, the Chargers are 2-7-2 with the Under, when tracking the last 11 times their opponent had eight or more seasonal wins (minus-$570).