Monday Night Football Trends: Week 7

Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints carries the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field on October 25, 2021 in Seattle, Washington.
Image Credit: Steph Chambers/Getty Images


New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

(Line: NO -5, O/U: 43)

New Orleans Saints

Among the relevant trends here, the Saints are 33-20 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $1,100 from a straight $110 bet. In that period, New Orleans also boasts superb ATS marks on the road (20-7, $1230), versus NFC opponents (26-14, $1060), playing teams with a losing record (17-7, $930) and when serving as the betting favorite (23-18, $320). The ATS numbers for 2021, though, are somewhat bland, with the Saints owning a 3-2 overall record ($80), 2-1 playing on the road ($90) and 2-2 when facing NFC competition (minus-$20). After six weeks of play, the Saints offense ranks ninth overall in rushing offense (125.8 ground yards per week), 10th in scoring offense (25.4 points per game), 28th in total offense (295.2 yards per week) and 31st in passing offense (169.4 yards per game).

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have posted mixed ATS results over the last three-plus seasons. For that period, the club has a 27-24-3 overall ATS record ($60), 13-12-1 mark at home (minus-$20), 13-9 against teams with a winning record ($310) and 11-5-1 ATS as the betting underdog ($550). The ATS results are similarly shaky for 2021. Seattle has a 3-3 overall record (minus-$30), 0-2 at home (minus-$220) and 1-2 versus NFC competition (minus-$120). Citing other notable trends, the Seahawks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games of being betting underdogs of +5 or more ($990). Also, Seattle has a 1-9 ATS mark from the club’s last 10 games when the NFC South opponent recorded less than 400 total yards the previous week (minus-$890). Six weeks into this season, the Seahawks offense ranks 16th overall in rushing offense (averaging 110.7 yards per game), 18th in scoring offense (23.3 points per week), 22nd in passing offense (233.3 yards per game) and 22nd in total offense (344.0 yards per week).

Total Trends

The Saints have eclipsed the Over 20 times in their last 37 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 ($130). Conversely, the Seahawks have a 17-20-1 record during the same timeline of regular-season action (minus-$500). All combined, that’s a 37-36-2 track record with the Over (minus-$260 or, if betting the Under, minus-$470). For 2021, New Orleans and Seattle are 2-3 and 2-4 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 4-7 (minus-$370). Also, when citing the teams’ last six head-to-head encounters, including the postseason, the Saints and Seahawks have tallied combined scoring averages of 52.3 points — well above this week’s O/U of 42.5. In other notable trends, New Orleans has a 7-1 record with the Over, when tracking the last eight times their weekly opponent averaged three or more red-zone possessions for that season ($590). On the flip side, the Saints own a 2-8 record with the Over from their last 10 non-December regular-season games (minus-$680).