Monday Night Football Trends: Week 6

Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans in action against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on October 10, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida.
Image Credit: Mark Brown/Getty Images


Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans

(Line: TEN +5.5, O/U: 54)

Buffalo Bills

Among the relevant trends here, the Bills are 31-20-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $900 from a straight $110 bet. In that period, Buffalo posted terrific ATS marks when playing on the road (17-7-2, $930), facing an AFC opponent (22-16-2, $440) and serving as the betting favorite (15-10, $400). The numbers for 2021 are similarly stellar, with the Bills enjoying a 4-1 overall record ($290), 2-0 ATS on the road ($200) and 3-1 as the betting favorite ($190). After five weeks of play, the Bills’ high-octane offense ranks first overall in scoring offense (34.4 points per game), fifth overall in rushing offense (140.4 yards per week), eighth in total offense (averaging 410.4 yards) and ninth in passing offense (270.0 yards per game).

Tennessee Titans

Among the relevant trends, the Titans have yielded marginal ATS results over the last three-plus seasons. For that period, the club has a 26-26-1 overall ATS record (minus-$260), 12-13-1 mark at home (minus-$230) and 18-20-1 record versus AFC opponents (minus-$400). The numbers are also underwhelming for primetime games since 2018, with Tennessee going 3-6 ATS at home (minus-$330) and 2-4 as the betting underdog (minus-$240). For this season, however, the Titans are 3-2 ATS overall ($80) and 2-1 versus AFC foes ($90). The Titans own a 4-1 ATS record in their last five matchups with the Bills, when representing the betting underdog ($290). On the flip side, Tennessee has a 2-13 ATS mark when charting its last 15 games of that week’s opponent possessing a streak of four or more consecutive wins (minus-$1230). Five weeks into the 2021 campaign, the Titans offense ranks third overall in rushing offense (167.8 yards per game), 10th in total offense (389.2 yards per week), 10th in scoring offense (averaging 26.4 points) and 26th in passing offense (221.4 yards per game).

Total Trends

The Bills have toppled the Over in just 17 of their last 37 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 (minus-$390). The Titans, however, boast a 25-11-1 record with the Over during the same span of regular-season games ($1290). All combined, that’s a 42-30-2 track record with the Over ($900 or, if betting the Under, minus-$1620). This year, Buffalo and Tennessee are 2-3 and 3-2 with the Over, respectively, or a combined 5-5 (minus-$50). In other notable trends, the Bills are 8-0-1 with the Over, when charting the club’s last nine games of that week’s opponent rushing for 75 or more yards the previous game ($800). Conversely, Buffalo has a 2-10 record with the Under (minus-$900), when citing the team’s last 12 games against AFC South competition as moneyline favorites by more than -125. (Buffalo’s a -250 favorite for Monday night.)