WEEK 2: MONDAY
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (Line: -11, O/U: 48.5)
Among the relevant trends here, the Lions are 23-25-1 against the spread (ATS) since the 2018 season (minus-$250). Within that timeline, Detroit has a 12-11-1 ATS record on the road (minus-$10) and 17-19-1 mark against NFC opponents. For the latter statistic, that’s a cumulative minus-$390 on a straight $110 bet. For the 2020 season, the Lions were in the same ballpark of ATS marginality, going 7-9 overall (minus-$290), 4-4 on the road (minus-$40) and 5-7 as the betting underdog (minus-$270). For its lone primetime game over the last two years (also at Green Bay in 2019), Detroit covered the spread ($100). After one week this season, the Lions own Top-10 rankings in three offensive categories, sixth overall in scoring offense (33 points), total offense (430 yards) and eighth in passing offense (314 yards).
From a trends perspective, for the Matt LaFleur coaching era (2019-present), Green Bay has tallied a robust ATS record of 20-13 ($570). During this span of two-plus seasons, the Packers have an overall ATS mark of 8-4 ($360) and 5-3 record when serving as the betting favorite ($170). And dating back to 2018, Green Bay owns an 8-4 ATS record for the month of September ($360). After one week of the 2021 season, Green Bay’s offense ranks at or near the bottom with team scoring (32nd overall, with just three points), total offense (32nd overall, 229 yards), passing yards (27th, 186 yards) and rushing yards (32nd, 43 yards). On the plus side, the Packers gave up just 151 passing yards in last week’s blowout loss — third-least in the NFL for Week 1 (of course, they allowed five TD passes anyway).
The Lions have toppled the Over in 21 of their last 33 games dating back to 2019 ($670). For that same timeline (including the 2021 opener), the Packers have a 15-18 track record with hitting the Over side (minus-$480) in regular-season games. All combined, that’s a 36-30 mark with the Over ($380). Regarding the Week 2 O/U of 48.5 points, when charting the NFC North rivals’ last 10 meetings, the cumulative scoring averages cleanly shake out to 50.0 points per game. In other trends, Green Bay has covered its last 11 ATS games when scoring 21 or fewer points the previous week ($1100). On the flip side, the Packers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as double-digit-point favorites (minus-$880). For the Lions, they’re 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with teams that made the playoffs the previous season ($690). Detroit (+420 underdogs for Week 2) has a 1-6 ATS record (minus-$560) in its last seven meetings with Green Bay, when serving as moneyline underdogs by more than +250.