Monday Night Football Trends: Week 15

Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears drops back to pass during a game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on December 12, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Bears 45-30.
Image Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images


Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

(Line: CHI +5.5, O/U 44)

Minnesota Vikings

Among the relevant trends, the Vikings are 30-30-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$300 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Minnesota posted mediocre ATS results when playing on the road (16-15, minus-$50), serving as the betting favorite (17-18-1, minus-$280) and encountering NFC competition (21-22-1, minus-$320). The ATS numbers for 2021 are also underwhelming, with the Vikings going 7-6 overall ($40), 2-4 as the betting favorite (minus-$240) and 0-3 versus losing clubs (minus-$330). With other trends, Minnesota has an 8-2 ATS from its last 10 encounters with playoff teams from the previous season ($580). Conversely, the Vikings have an 0-8 ATS (minus-$880) from the last eight times they faced a team with a winning percentage below .400. Minnesota’s marginal defense ranks 26th against the pass (allowing 251.9 yards per game). Conversely, the Vikings offense ranks third in total offense (390.5 yards), seventh in passing offense (267.4 yards), 10th in rushing offense (123.2 yards) and 11th in scoring offense (26.5 points per game).

Chicago Bears

Factoring in recent trends, the Bears are 27-33-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$930 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Chicago posted middling ATS results when playing at home (14-15-1, minus-$250), facing NFC foes (20-23-1, minus-$530) and representing the betting underdog (14-19, minus-$690). The ATS numbers for 2021 are progressively worse, at 4-9 overall (minus-$590), 1-7 against NFC foes (minus-$670), and 2-8 as the underdog (minus-$680). Also, Chicago has an 0-8-1 ATS mark against the NFC North (minus-$880), when the divisional foe has a home losing streak of two or more games. Entering Week 15, Chicago’s defense has the league’s 24th-ranked scoring defense (allowing 25.6 points per game). On the flip side, the Bears offense ranks seventh in rushing offense (126.0 yards), 28th in scoring offense (17.8 points per game), 31st in total offense (302.5 yards) and dead-last in passing offense (176.5 yards).

Total Trends

The Vikings have eclipsed the Over 28 times in their last 45 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 ($1040). The Bears have been tangibly worse during the same timeline of regular-season games, going 19-26 with the Over (minus-$960). All combined, that’s a 47-42-1 track record with the Over ($80) or, if betting the Under, minus-$970. In 2021, Minnesota and Chicago are 8-5 and 5-8 with the Over for a combined 13-13 (minus-$130). Chronicling their last five meetings in Chicago, the Vikings and Bears yielded combined averages of 33.2 points per game — well below Monday’s 44 total. In another trend, the Under is 4-1 with the last five Vikings-Bears games in which Chicago scored 22-plus points the previous week ($290).