Guardians plus +475 to win the AL Central; 50/1 to win Pennant
We were on this at about +800. That was criminal. This is also very bad by the casinos. I just don’t understand these odds. I think it should be +200, +250. Maybe I make the Twins the slightest of favorites right now to win the AL Central. But I think I like the Guardians more.
The Guardians’ secret weapon is a great bullpen and that is so obviously important in today’s game. (Cleveland is 2.94 in reliever ERA, trailing only the Yankees and Astros.) You pair that with decent starting pitching (17th in starting ERA) and that means they get a lead after six innings and it probably holds. They say 50 games you win no matter what and 50 you lose no matter what and then there are the other games. I think the Guardians are going to win most of these swing games.
The Guardians also have some prospects on the horizon that can contribute down the stretch. (Note that Daniel Espino is back now pitching in Double-A and has 35 Ks and four BBs in 18.1 innings, four starts. And Gavin Williams was recently promoted to Double-A and on the season has 78 Ks vs. 19 BBs in 58.2 IP.) I just think this is a very, very good bet.
And I also like 50/1 to get to the World Series. Now is this bet likely to lose? Of course. But it should be about 20/1. So I want to lock that up now and then have the option of hedging off that once the playoffs start. I’m confident the Guardians will make it (ninth-best in run differential in MLB; fourth in the AL).
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