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Men’s NCAA Tournament Second Round Trends Report

Paolo Banchero #5 of the Duke Blue Devils celebrates after a three point basket during the first half against the Cal State Fullerton Titans in the first round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 18, 2022 in Greenville, South Carolina.
Image Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Big 12 and ACC dominated the first round of the Men’s NCAA Tournament, while the Mountain West struggled mightily. With the first round now in the hooks, here are BetPrep’s trends for some of the key matchups in the second round on Saturday and Sunday.

No. 8 North Carolina (+5.5) vs. No. 1 Baylor

Brady Manek #45 of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts in the first half of the game against the Marquette Golden Eagles during the first round of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Dickies Arena on March 17, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas.
Image Credit: Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Saturday, 12:10 p.m. ET, CBS (O/U: 148.5)

Two teams that blew out the competition in the first round will square off in the first game of the second round on Saturday afternoon when 9 seed North Carolina takes on 1 seed Baylor at 12:10 p.m. ET on CBS. The Bears hammered Norfolk State 85-49 before the Tar Heels dismantled Marquette 95-63, which was the largest margin ever in a No. 8 vs. No. 9 seed.

UNC has won seven of its past eight games, whereas BU has won seven consecutive NCAA Tournament games, which includes its title win over Gonzaga last season.

North Carolina Key Trends

  • Despite covering in the first round, the Tar Heels are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

  • UNC is 0-6 against the number in its last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

  • The Over is 15-6-1 in the Tar Heels’ last 22 games overall.

Baylor Key Trends

  • The Bears are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.

  • Baylor is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games as a favorite.

  • The Over is 5-2 in the Bears’ last seven games following a win.

No. 9 Creighton (+11.5) vs. No. 1 Kansas

Guard Ochai Agbaji #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks handles the ball during the first half of the college basketball game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at United Supermarkets Arena on January 08, 2022 in Lubbock, Texas.
Image Credit: John E. Moore III/Getty Images

Saturday, 2:40 p.m. ET, CBS (O/U: 139.5)

Creighton comes into its second-round matchup with Kansas on an ATS tear. The Bluejays have covered in four straight games dating back to the Big East Tournament, which includes their come-from-behind win in overtime against San Diego State on Thursday night. In all four of those games, Creighton was the underdog.

Kansas, meanwhile, is on a five-game ATS run. En route to the Big 12 Tournament title, the Jayhawks covered as chalk against West Virginia (-9.5), TCU (-8) and Texas Tech (-2.5) before hammering Texas Southern 83-56 as a 21.5-point favorite in Thursday’s opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Creighton Key Trends

  • The Bluejays are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog.

  • Creighton is just 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 NCAA Tournament games despite covering on Thursday night against San Diego State.

  • The Under is 4-1 in the Bluejays’ last five NCAA Tournament games.

Kansas Key Trends

  • The Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when facing an opponent with a winning record.

  • Kansas is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games coming off a win of more than 20 points.

  • The Over is 6-2-1 in the Jayhawks’ last nine NCAA Tournament games.

No. 11 Michigan (+6) vs. No. 3 Tennessee

Tennessee Volunteers guard Kennedy Chandler (1) shoots a free throw during the mens March Madness college basketball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Longwood Lancers on March 17, 2022, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN.
Image Credit: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Saturday, 5:15 p.m. ET, CBS (O/U: 136.5)

Michigan has been as inconsistent as they come from a betting standpoint. The Wolverines are just 14-18 ATS on the year and finished with a 5-7 ATS mark on the road. While they covered as 1.5-point favorites against Colorado State in the first round of the tournament, they were beaten outright as 3-point chalk in the Big Ten Tournament by Indiana and have alternated ATS wins and losses for 14 consecutive games.

Tennessee has been more consistent for bettors, posting a 21-13 ATS record this season. The Vols have covered in seven of their last 10 games and haven’t posted an ATS loss since the SEC tournament started on March 11. That’s a span of four straight covers, including as an 18-point favorite against Longwood in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan Key Trends

  • The Wolverines are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

  • Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last five games coming off a win.

  • The Under is 3-0-1 in the Wolverines’ last four NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

Tennessee Key Trends

  • The Vols are just 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.

  • Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.

  • The Over is 12-3 in the Vols’ last 15 neutral site games as a favorite.

No. 12 Richmond (+3) vs. No. 4 Providence

Head coach Ed Cooley of the Providence Friars calls out a play during the first half against the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the first round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at KeyBank Center on March 17, 2022 in Buffalo, New York.
Image Credit: Joshua Bessex/Getty Images

Saturday, 6:10 p.m. ET, TNT (O/U: 134.5)

With their surprising win over Iowa in the first round, the Richmond Spiders have now won four straight games as a betting underdog. One of those victories came against Davidson in the A-10 Tournament, as the Spiders knocked off the Wildcats 64-62 as a 3.5-point neutral site dog. Richmond hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 64 points in five straight games.

Providence was on a two-game ATS losing streak entering the tournament but then blasted South Dakota State 66-57 despite being only a 3-point favorite in the first round. The Friars have now covered in four of their last six games.

Richmond Key Trends

  • The Spiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games as an underdog.

  • Richmond is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against an opponent with a winning record.

  • The Under is 3-0-1 in the Spiders’ last four NCAA Tournament games.

Providence Key Trends

  • Providence is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.

  • The Friars are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine neutral site games as a favorite.

  • The Under is 5-0 in Providence’s last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

No. 5 Saint Mary’s (+3) vs. No. 4 UCLA

Tyger Campbell #10 of the UCLA Bruins handles the ball against the Arizona Wildcats during the Pac-12 Conference basketball tournament championship game at T-Mobile Arena on March 12, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Image Credit: Leon Bennett/Getty Images

Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET, TBS (O/U: 126)

After failing to cover against Santa Clara as a 4.5-point favorite in the WCC Tournament and then pushing against Gonzaga in the conference Final, Saint Mary’s came to play for bettors in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Laying only 2.5 points, the Gaels hammered Indiana 82-53 on Thursday night in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Gaels have also cashed three straight overs coming into today’s matchup with UCLA.

Speaking of last year’s Cinderella, the Bruins had all sorts of trouble getting past 13.5-point underdog Akron in the opening round. UCLA trailed the Zips until late, then pulled away for a narrow four-point victory. The Bruins have now dropped two straight games at the window and three of their last five overall.

Saint Mary’s Key Trends

  • The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

  • Saint Mary’s is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 games versus a team with a winning record.

  • The Under is 7-2 in the Gaels’ last nine NCAA Tournament games and 5-0 in their last five tourney games as an underdog.

UCLA Key Trends

  • The Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

  • UCLA is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.

  • The Under is 18-6 in the Bruins’ last 24 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (+9) vs. No. 7 Murray State

KJ Williams #0 of the Murray State Racers reacts after drawing a foul on a drive to the basket by Patrick Tape #11 of the San Francisco Dons during the overtime period in the first round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on March 17, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Image Credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET, CBS (O/U: 129.5)

Saint Peter’s pulled off the stunner of the first round, knocking off 2 seed Kentucky 85-79 in overtime as an 18-point underdog. That said, the Peacocks came into the tournament hot as well, posting seven consecutive outright and ATS wins before upsetting the Wildcats.

The Racers ended a three-game ATS slide on Thursday night when they came from behind to beat San Francisco 92-87 in overtime as a 1.5-point favorite. Murray State hasn’t been good recently from a betting standpoint, failing to cover in three of its last four games.

Saint Peter’s Key Trends

  • The Peacocks are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games as an underdog.

  • Saint Peter’s is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games.

  • The Under is 14-6-2 in the Peacocks’ last 22 neutral site games as an underdog.

Murray State Key Trends

  • The Racers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when facing a team with a winning percentage above .600.

  • Murray State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.

  • The Under is 7-3 in the Racers’ last 10 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 12 New Mexico State (+6.5) vs. No. 4 Arkansas

JD Notae #1 of the Arkansas Razorbacks runs the offense during a game against the Pennsylvania Quakers at Bud Walton Arena on November 28, 2021 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The Razorbacks defeated the Quakers 76-60.
Image Credit: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Saturday, 8:40 p.m. ET, TNT (O/U: 138)

After pulling off the upset in the opening round against UConn, New Mexico State has now covered in four straight games. Over that span, the Aggies held opponents to under 65 points in three of those four contests.

Arkansas entered the SEC Tournament on a 10-1-1 ATS tear, then covered as 3-point favorites against LSU in the first round of the conference tournament before losing outright to Texas A&M as a 6.5-point favorite. Despite beating Vermont in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, the Hogs failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites in a 4-point win.

New Mexico State Key Trends

  • The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

  • New Mexico State 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

  • Over is 4-0 in the Aggies’ last four NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

Arkansas Key Trends

  • The Razorbacks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

  • Arkansas is 5-11 in its last 16 NCAA Tournament games.

  • The Over is 7-0 in the Hogs’ last seven games overall.

No. 9 Memphis (+10) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga

Drew Timme #2 and Chet Holmgren #34 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs look on during the second half against the Georgia State Panthers in the first round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Moda Center on March 17, 2022 in Portland, Oregon.
Image Credit: Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Saturday, 9:40 p.m. ET, TBS (O/U: 155)

The Tigers have now covered in four of their last five games after beating Boise State 64-53 as a 3.5-point favorite in the opening round. The Under has also cashed in three straight Memphis games, which included its opening round win over Boise State.

As for Gonzaga, the Bulldogs nearly covered as 22.5-point chalk against Georgia State in the first round despite the Panthers surprisingly giving them a game for nearly 30 minutes. The Bulldogs might be the No. 1 overall team in the tournament, but they’re winless at the betting window in their last four games overall.

Memphis Key Trends

  • The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

  • Memphis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog.

  • The Under is 5-1 in the Tigers’ last six NCAA Tournament games.

Gonzaga Key Trends

  • The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning record.

  • Gonzaga is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games.

  • The Under is 7-3 in the Bulldogs’ last 10 games overall.

No. 5 Houston (-5) vs. No. 4 Illinois

Kyler Edwards #11 of the Houston Cougars dribbles the ball against the UAB Blazers during the first half in the first round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at PPG PAINTS Arena on March 18, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Image Credit: Rob Carr/Getty Images

Sunday, 12:10 p.m. ET, CBS (O/U: 133.5)

The Cougars have now covered in five of their last seven NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and in four straight games overall after knocking off UAB 82-68 as 8.5-point chalk in the opening round on Friday. Houston also covered as 12.5-point, 14-point and 3.5-point favorites against Cincinnati, Tulane and Memphis, respectively, in the AAC Tournament.

Illinois was fortunate enough to advance to the second round after rallying to beat Chattanooga 54-53 in the first round. The Illini trailed virtually all game and failed to cover as an 8.5-point favorite. They’re now 0-4 at the window in their last four games and 0-6 in their last six games coming off a win.

Houston Key Trends

  • Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games versus a team with a winning record.

  • The Cougars are 20-7 at the window in its last 27 neutral site games as a favorite.

  • The Under is 8-3 in the Cougars’ last 11 games when playing at a neutral site as a favorite.

Illinois Key Trends

  • The Fighting Illini are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.

  • Illinois is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.

  • The Under is 6-0-1 in the Fighting Illini’s last seven NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

No. 7 Ohio State (+5.5) vs. No. 2 Villanova

Villanova Wildcats mascot looks on during the men's March Madness college basketball game between the Delaware Fightin Blue Hens and the Villanova Wildcats on March 18, 2022 at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA.
Image Credit: Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Sunday, 2:40 p.m. ET, CBS (O/U: 132)

The Buckeyes pulled off the small upset as a 1-point underdog against Loyola-Chicago in the opening round on Friday, but Ohio State has been a bad bet of late. The Buckeyes have failed to cover in three of their last five games, which includes an outright loss to Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament as a 5.5-point favorite.

As for Villanova, the Wildcats covered as 15-point favorites against Delaware in an 80-60 rout on Friday and have now covered in two of their last three games. That said, they have failed to cover in all six of their last six games coming off an ATS win.

Ohio State Key Trends

  • The Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog

  • Ohio State is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 neutral site games.

  • That said, the Buckeyes are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games.

Villanova Key Trends

  • The Wildcats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 NCAA Tournament games.

  • Villanova is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

  • The Under is 5-1 in the Wildcats’ last six neutral site games.

No. 7 Michigan State (+6.5) vs. No. 1 Duke

Marcus Bingham Jr. #30 of the Michigan State Spartans celebrates after a called timeout by the Davidson Wildcats during the second half in the first round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 18, 2022 in Greenville, South Carolina.
Image Credit: Eakin Howard/Getty Images

Sunday, 5:15 p.m. ET, CBS (O/U: 144.5)

The Underdog has covered in five straight meetings between these two teams, while the Spartans are a perfect 5-0 at the window after upsetting Davidson as a small dog on Friday night. MSU’s ATS win streak dates back to its final regular season win and cover against Maryland, while Sparty also went a perfect 4-0 ATS in their four Big Ten Tournament games.

While Michigan State has been outstanding for bettors, Duke has killed them of late. The Blue Devils easily dispatched CS Fullerton in the opening round, but failed to cover as an 18.5-point favorite. They haven’t covered since the start of the ACC Tournament (0-3 ATS) and cashed only once in the month of March (at Pittsburgh as a 14.5-point favorite in an 86-56 win).

Michigan State Key Trends

  • The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games as an underdog.

  • Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games.

  • The Over is 6-1 in Sparty’s last seven games overall.

Duke Key Trends

  • The Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

  • Duke is 0-7 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

  • The Over is 6-1 in the Blue Devils’ last seven games overall.

No. 11 Iowa State (+3) vs. No. 3 Wisconsin

Izaiah Brockington #1 of the Iowa State Cyclones celebrates after a three point shot against the LSU Tigers in the second half during the first round of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Fiserv Forum on March 18, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Image Credit: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Sunday, 6:10 p.m. ET, TNT (O/U: 124.5)

Iowa State handed a struggling LSU team a 59-54 loss on Friday night, covering easily as a 3-point underdog. The Cyclones have struggled recently offensively, but Tyrese Hunter went off for 23 points in the win, including a 3-pointer from deep to put the nail in the Tigers’ coffin.

Wisconsin beat Colgate 67-60 in the opening round of the tournament, but failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite. The Badgers didn’t start to pull away from the Raiders until midway through the second half and it appeared as though they were going to cover but a late layup by Colgate supplied the backdoor cover for Raiders’ backers.

Iowa State Key Trends

  • The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

  • Iowa State is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games played on Sunday.

  • The Over is 7-1 in the Cyclones’ last eight NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

Wisconsin Key Trends

  • The Badgers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games when favored.

  • Wisconsin is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games.

  • The Over is 12-4 in the Badgers’ last 16 games coming off a win.

No. 11 Notre Dame (+7.5) vs. No. 3 Texas Tech

Bryson Williams #11 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders is seen during the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at T-Mobile Center on March 11, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri.
Image Credit: Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Sunday, 7:10 p.m. ET, TBS (O/U: 133)

The Fighting Irish have covered in their last two games, first as a 1-point favorite against Rutgers in the First Four round, then as a 4-point dog in a 78-64 upset over Alabama in the opening round. Notre Dame has now cashed in five of its last six games as an underdog.

Texas Tech dropped three straight games at the window to close out the regular season, then failed to cover in two of its three games in the Big 12 Tournament. That said, the Red Raiders came out guns blazing in their opening round matchup against Montana State, easily disposing of the Bobcats in a 97-62 rout as a 14.5-point favorite.

Notre Dame Key Trends

  • The Fighting Irish have covered in six of their last eight games overall.

  • Notre Dame is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games coming off a win.

  • The Over is 8-1-1 in the Irish’s last 10 games overall.

Texas Tech Key Trends

  • The Red Raiders have covered in seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games.

  • Texas Tech is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games versus an opponent with a winning record.

  • The Under is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

No. 10 Miami (+7.5) vs. No. 2 Auburn

Jabari Smith #10 of the Auburn Tigers reacts late in the second half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn Arena on January 22, 2022 in Auburn, Alabama.
Image Credit: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Sunday, 7:45 p.m. ET, truTV (O/U: 144.5)

Miami has been profitable for bettors of late, posting a 5-1-1 ATS record over its last seven games, which includes its 68-66 victory over USC as an underdog in the opening round. The ‘Canes have also thrived as an underdog, covering in six of their last seven neutral site games as a dog.

Auburn, meanwhile, has not fared well at the window of late despite covering as a 14-point favorite against Jacksonville State in the first round. The Tigers are just 2-6 against the number in their last eight games dating back to a failed cover against Vanderbilt on February 16.

Miami Key Trends

  • The Hurricanes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.

  • Miami is 23-8-1 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog.

  • The Over is 11-4 in the ‘Canes last 15 NCAA Tournament games.

Auburn Key Trends

  • The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.

  • Auburn is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.

  • The Over is 5-1 in the Tigers’ last six NCAA Tournament games.

No. 6 Texas (+3.5) vs. No. 3 Purdue (-3.5)

Jaden Ivey #23 of the Purdue Boilermakers drives the ball past August Mahoney #3 of the Yale Bulldogs in the first half of the game during the first round of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Fiserv Forum on March 18, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Image Credit: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Sunday, 8:40 p.m. ET, TNT (O/U: 134.5)

Texas’ 81-73 win over Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday afternoon was the first time the Longhorns covered in their last six games. You’d have to go back to UT’s 80-78 overtime win over Oklahoma on February 15 for the last time the ‘Horns posted a win at the window before their rout of the Hokies.

The Longhorns weren’t the only team that ended an ATS drought in the opening round of the tournament. Before crushing Yale 78-56 as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday, Purdue had gone 10 consecutive games without an ATS win, with the Boilermakers’ last ATS victory coming on February 8 in a win over Illinois.

Texas Key Trends

  • The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.

  • Texas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 NCAA Tournament games.

  • The Over is 12-4 in the Longhorns’ last 16 NCAA Tournament games.

Purdue Key Trends

  • The Boilermakers are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

  • Purdue is 0-5-2 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win.

  • The Over is 4-1 in the Boilermakers’ last five NCAA Tournament games.

No. 9 TCU (+9.5) vs. No. 1 Arizona

Bennedict Mathurin #0 of the Arizona Wildcats after his made three point basket against the Wright State Raiders during the first half in the first round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 18, 2022 in San Diego, California.
Image Credit: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Sunday, 9:40 p.m. ET, TBS (O/U: 143)

In their 69-42 rout of Seton Hall on Friday night, the TCU Horned Frogs covered easily as 1.5-point underdogs. It was their second cover in their last three games, with their lone ATS loss coming against Kansas as an 8-point dog in the Big 12 Tournament.

Arizona, meanwhile, has been up-and-down from a betting standpoint. The Wildcats hammered Wright State 87-70 in their opening round matchup but failed to cover as 21.5-point favorites. The Wildcats did cover two of their three games in the Pac-12 Tournament, including as a 2-point favorite over UCLA in the Final.

TCU Key Trends

  • The Horned Frogs are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog.

  • TCU Is 18-7-3 in its last 28 games overall.

  • The Under is 6-0 in the Horned Frogs’ last six games overall.

Arizona Key Trends

  • The Wildcats are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.

  • Arizona is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games.

  • The Over is 6-1 in the Wildcats’ last seven games overall.