College Football Trends Report: Week 3

Bryce Young #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts after a touchdown against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 02, 2021 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
Image Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

A battle of Top 25 teams in the SEC highlights Week 3 in college football, as No. 1 Alabama travels to Gainesville, FL to take on No. 11 Florida. A SEC-Big Ten matchup will also ensue in Happy Valley, where No. 10 Penn State hosts No. 22 Auburn. And  No. 3 Oklahoma will attempt to stay unbeaten when Nebraska visits Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Here are BetPrep’s key trends for Week 3’s biggest matchups.

Nebraska (+22) at No. 3 Oklahoma, 12:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 61.5)

What You Need to Know

  • Oklahoma has dominated this series. This will be the first meeting between these two teams since the 2010 Big 12 Championship Game, which was won by Oklahoma, 23-20. The Sooners have won five of the last six meetings in this series, with the Cornhuskers’ last victory over OU coming in 1996. Nebraska has lost its last three road games against Oklahoma.

  • The Cornhuskers have struggled against AP Top 5 teams. The last time Nebraska knocked off an AP Top 5 team on the road was in 1997 when the ‘Huskers beat then-No. 2 Washington. Since that point, they’re 0-6 on the road against AP Top 5 teams.

  • The Under has been profitable in previous meetings between these two teams. In the last eight Nebraska-OU matchups, the Under cashed six times. The Under is also 4-1 in the last five meetings in Norman.

Nebraska Key Trends

  • The Under is 8-0-1 in the Cornhuskers’ last nine games on the road.

  • Nebraska is 3-7-1 against the spread  (ATS) on the road over its last 11 games.

  • The Cornhuskers have covered just twice of their last eight games.

Oklahoma Key Trends

  • Over their last nine games, the Sooners are 8-1 ATS.

  • Oklahoma is 5-1 at the betting window in its last six home games.

  • The Under is 8-1 in the Sooners’ last nine games when they own a home winning streak of two or more.

No. 1 Alabama (-15) at No. 11 Florida , 3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 58.5)

What You Need to Know:

  • ‘Bama has owned Florida. The Gators haven’t beaten the Crimson Tide since the 2008 SEC Championship Game when Tim Tebow was under center. Alabama has won seven-straight meetings against Florida. That’s  one shy of tying the longest winning streak by either team in series history.

  • Dan Mullen hasn’t had much success against Nick Saban. Mullen is winless in his last 10 head-to-head meetings with Saban, who owns more victories against Mullen than any head coach in his career.

  • The Crimson Tide have had zero problems scoring. Alabama has tallied at least 30 points in 28-straight games, the second-longest streak in college football history (UCF had a 31-game run from 2017 to 2019).

Alabama Key Trends

  • The Crimson Tide is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Gators.

  • ‘Bama is a perfect 6-0 at the betting window in its last six games when failing to cover in its previous game.

  • The Over is 8-0 in Alabama’s last eight games when its opponent has out-scored the opposition by more than 10 points per game.

Florida Key Trends

  • The Gators are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.

  • The Over is 8-1 in Florida’s last nine games when its opponent is averaging more than 350 yards per game.

  • Florida is 1-9 against the number in its last 10 games when it outgained its opponents by more than 210 yards per game.

No. 22 Auburn (+6) at No. 10 Penn State, 7:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 53)

What You Need to Know:

  • Penn State has not fared well against SEC opponents. Since beating LSU in the 2010 Citrus Bowl, the Nittany Lions have lost four straight games against the SEC.

    • Alabama 27, Penn State 11 (2011 Regular Season)

    • Florida 37, Penn State 24 (2011 Outback Bowl)

    • Georgia 24, Penn State 17 (2016 TaxSlayer Bowl)

    • Kentucky 27, Penn State 24 (2019 Citrus Bowl)

  • Auburn has not fared well on the road against Top-10 competition. The Tigers haven’t won a road game against an AP Top 10 opponent since beating No. 7 Ole Miss in Oxford during the 2014 season. Their only road victory against a Top 10, non-conference opponent was in 1984 when they beat No. 9 Florida State, 42-41.

  • Bo Nix has been a better quarterback at home than on the road. The Auburn signal-caller has a 12-2 record here during his career, completing 64% of his passes for a 20:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On the road, Nix is 5-7 as a starter and has completed only 55% of his passes for a 13:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Auburn Key Trends

  • The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.

  • The Under is 12-5 in Auburn’s last 17 games.

  • The Under is 20-2-2 in the Tigers’ last 24 games when their opponent recorded more than 450 yards in its last game.

Penn State Key Trends

  • The Nittany Lions have covered the spread in six consecutive games.

  • Penn State is 8-1 at the betting window in its last nine games when playing in the month of September.

  • The Under is 10-4 in PSU’s last 14 games when the team’s previous game also fell Under the total.