College Football Trends Report: Bowl Week 12/23

Seth Henigan #14 of the Memphis Tigers looks to pass against the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field on October 2, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Image Credit: Cody Glenn/Getty Images

Week 2 of the College Football Bowl season continues with four matchups this weekend. Here are BetPrep’s key trends for the Frisco Football Classic, the Union Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl, the EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl, and the TaxAct Camellia Bowl.

Frisco Football Classic: North Texas (+2.5) vs. Miami Ohio 

3:30 p.m. ET, Thursday (O/U: 54.5)

North Texas started the season 1-6 but the Mean Green rattled off five straight games to qualify for a bowl game. They were also one of the stronger teams against the spread this season, covering in six straight games to finish their regular season and posting a 9-3 ATS record overall.

As for Miami OH, the Redhawks beat two bowl-eligible teams this season but they haven’t won a bowl game since 2010. They lost to Mississippi State in 2016 and Louisiana in 2019. Then again, the Mean Green haven’t won a bowl game since 2013, so neither team has had much “postseason” success.

North Texas Key Trends

  • The Mean Green are 2-5 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
  • North Texas has covered in six straight games.
  • The Over is 5-2-1 in the Mean Green’s last five conference games.

Miami Ohio Key Trends

  • The RedHawks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.
  • Miami OH is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.
  • The Under is 7-1 in the RedHawks’ last eight neutral site games.

Gasparilla Bowl: UCF (+7) vs. Florida

7:00 p.m. ET, Thursday (O/U: 55.5)

Florida had one of the more disappointing seasons in college football, which culminated in the firing of head coach Dan Mullen. Greg Knox will serve as the Gators’ interim head coach before Billy Napier takes over in Gainesville next season. They barely qualified for a bowl after finishing 6-6 while posting an ugly 3-9 ATS record.

UCF, meanwhile, went 8-4 in former Auburn coach Gus Malzahn’s first season on the sidelines. The Knights won three of their last four games, although they failed to cover in three of those four contests, including a narrow 17-13 victory over South Florida as a 17-point home favorite. It’s worth noting that the Knights only beat two teams that finished with a winning record.

UCF Knights Key Trends

  • The Knights are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
  • UCF is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.
  • The Under is 8-1-1 in the Knights’ last 10 games versus SEC opponents.

Florida Key Trends

  • The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
  • Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.
  • The Over is 4-1 in the Gators’ last five bowl games.

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl: Memphis (-8.5) at Hawaii

8:00 p.m. ET, Friday (o/u 55.5)

While Hawaii won’t have to worry about traveling this bowl season, the Rainbow Warriors do have a challenge ahead of them at quarterback. Chevan Cordeiro entered the transfer portal, so Brayden Schager will start under center against Memphis. The team’s top running back, Dae Dae Hunter, is also in the transfer portal, making it even more difficult for Hawaii to pull off the upset.

The Tigers won’t face the same issue, as Seth Henigan will look to build off his 25-touchdown, eight-interception performance during the regular season. Memphis’ offense finished in the top 25 in passing yards at 298.8 YPG and averaged over 30 points per game. That said, the Tigers finished with a 6-6 record and went 4-8 against the number.

Memphis Key Trends

  • The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
  • Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six bowl games.
  • The Under is 11-5 in the Tigers’ last 16 games overall.

Hawaii Key Trends

  • The Rainbow Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a win.
  • Hawaii is 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
  • The Under is 7-3 in the Rainbow Warriors’ last 10 games following a win.

TaxAct Camellia Bowl: Georgia State (-6) vs. Ball State

2:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (O/U: 51)

Georgia State won six of its last seven games to end the season, all while covering in six of those contests over that span. One of those victories came as a 13-point road underdog against Coastal Carolina.

On the other side, Ball State finished in the middle of the pack in the MAC. The Cardinals’ best wins came in early October when they pulled off outright upsets over Army (28-16, +10) and at Western Michigan (45-20, +13.5). That said, while the Panthers posted an 8-4 ATS record, the Cardinals went just 4-8 against the number this season.

Georgia State Key Trends

  • The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • Georgia State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.
  • The Under is 5-1 in the Panthers’ last six games overall.

Ball State Key Trends

  • The Cardinals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games versus a team with a winning record.
  • Ball State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog.
  • The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals’ last four bowl games.