College Basketball Trends Report: Saturday, March 12

Guard Ochai Agbaji #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks handles the ball during the first half of the college basketball game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at United Supermarkets Arena on January 08, 2022 in Lubbock, Texas.
Image Credit: John E. Moore III/Getty Images

A total of 12 teams have punched their ticket to the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament and 15 more will qualify on Saturday. As we draw closer to Selection Sunday, here are BetPrep’s key college basketball trends for Saturday’s biggest conference championship games.

No. 14 Texas Tech (+2) vs. No. 6 Kansas

6:00 p.m. ET, ESPN (O/U: 134.5)

Texas Tech will attempt to win its first Big 12 Tournament title in school history when the Red Raiders take on Kansas at 6:00 p.m. ET in the conference title game. According to ESPN Stats & Informational Group, the Red Raiders own six victories against AP Top-15 opponents, which is the most in a season in program history. Mark Adams is also the eighth different head coach to take Tech to the NCAA Tournament.

As for Kansas, the Jayhawks are on the verge of heading to their 50th NCAA Tournament appearance, joining Kentucky and North Carolina as the only programs with 50 appearances. This season would also mark the 32nd straight NCAA Tournament appearance for Kansas, which is the longest streak in Division I history.

The Jayhawks are led by Ochai Agbaji, who is averaging 19.7 points per game, which is the most in the Big 12 this season. 

Texas Tech Key Trends

  • The Red Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
  • Texas Tech is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games versus an opponent with a winning record.
  • The Under is 5-2 in the Red Raiders’ last seven games overall.

Kanas Key Trends

  • The Jayhawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
  • KU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win.
  • The Under is 4-1 in Kansas’ last five games.

Creighton (+6.5) vs. No. 8 Villanova

6:30 p.m. ET, FOX (O/U: 134.5)

Villanova will go for its fifth Big East Tournament title in the last seven tournaments on Saturday evening when the Wildcats take on Creighton in the conference championship. With a win, the Wildcats will secure their sixth Big East Tournament title, which would tie them with UConn for the second-most all-time behind only Georgetown’s eight championships. ‘Nova is currently projected as a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Standing in the Wildcats’ way is a Creighton team that has pulled off back-to-back upsets in the tournament thus far. The Bluejays were 3-point underdogs against Marquette in the opening round and easily dispatched the Golden Eagles, 74-63. Then on Friday evening, Creighton embarrassed Providence 85-58 as a 2.5-point dog. If the Bluejays can pull off another upset on Saturday, it would be their first Big East Tournament title in program history.

Creighton Key Trends

  • The Underdog in this series has covered in seven of the previous nine meetings.
  • The Bluejays are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
  • Creighton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

Villanova Key Trends

  • The Wildcats are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 neutral site games.
  • Villanova is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 neutral site games when favored.
  • The Under is 5-0 the Wildcats’ last five neutral site games as a favorite.

Virginia Tech (+6) at No. 7 Duke

8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN (O/U: 138.5)

As the No. 7 seed, Virginia Tech would become the lowest seed to ever win the ACC Tournament if the Hokies can pull off the upset tonight against Duke. With a win, VA Tech would secure its first conference tournament title since 1979 when the league was the Metro Conference.

Duke, meanwhile, could secure its 22nd ACC Tournament championship – most of any team – with a victory tonight. Tonight will mark coach Mike Krzyzewski’s 16th ACC Tournament title, which is the second-most conference tournament titles of any coach all-time (Mark Few has 18).

The Hokies are led by Keve Aluma, who ranks 9th in the ACC with 15.7 points per game entering Saturday. The team is allowing 62.2 points per game, which is second-best in the ACC entering play today. On the other side, Paolo Banchero ranks sixth in the ACC with 16.9 points per game for Duke, which is the most among ACC freshmen (seventh among D-I freshmen) entering play today.

Virginia Tech Key Trends

  • Virginia Tech has covered nine of its last 11 games when playing the third game of a 3-in-5 days situation.
  • The Hokies are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win.
  • The Under is 7-3 in VA Tech’s last 11 games overall.

Duke Key Trends

  • Duke is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.
  • The Blue Devils are winless at the window in their last five games when facing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.
  • The Over is a perfect 5-0 in Duke’s last five games overall.

No. 13 UCLA (+1) vs. No. 2 Arizona

9:00 p.m. ET, FOX (O/U: 143)

Arizona will go for its eighth Pac-12 tournament title – the most in the conference – when the Wildcats clash with UCLA on Saturday night. The Wildcats are led by Benedict Mathurin, who averages 17.1 points per game, 5.7 rebounds per contest, is shooting 38% from the field and finished as the Pac-12 Player of the Year.

As for UCLA, the Bruins will attempt to win their fifth Pac-12 Tournament title, which would tie them with Oregon for second-most. They’re also on the verge of making their 50th NCAA Tournament appearance and their 111-43 (.721) NCAA Tournament record is the most by any team from the Pac-12 according to ESPN’s Stats & Informational Group.

If the Bruins are to pull off the upset, Tyger Campbell will likely need to have a big game. The two-time All-Pac-12 First Team honoree averages 11.4 PPG, 4.3 assists per contest and has shot 41% from 3-point range this season.

The Underdog is 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings between these two teams.

UCLA Key Trends

  • The Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • UCLA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog.
  • The UOver is 4-1 in the Bruins’ last five games overall.

Arizona Key Trends

  • Arizona is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.
  • The Wildcats are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games overall.
  • The Over is 5-0 in Arizona’s last five games overall.