Chiefs-Browns Trends: Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium.
Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

WEEK 1: SUNDAY @ 4:25 p.m. EST

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (Line: -5.5, O/U: 54.5)

Browns Trends

Relevant to this matchup, the Browns are 10-14 against the spread (ATS) since the 2018 season. That’s a minus-$540 on a straight $110 bet. During that same stretch, Cleveland has an overall ATS mark of 13-22 against AFC foes (minus-$1120).

The Browns also possess an 11-11 ATS record over the last three years as the betting underdog (minus-$110), with a 1-0 mark when the line opened at 5.5 or higher ($100). For the 2020 campaign, Cleveland owned an ATS record of 5-8 when playing during daytime hours (minus-$380), with a 2-5 mark for daytime road outings (minus-$350). On offense last year, the Browns ranked third overall in rushing yards (148.4 per outing), 24th overall in passing yards (221.2 per game), 16th in total offense (369.6 yards per game) and 14th in scoring (25.5 points per game).

On the defensive side last year, Cleveland endured bottom-15 rankings with passing yards allowed (247.6 yards per game) and points surrendered (26.2 per outing). Alternatively, the Browns were the AFC’s third-stingiest rushing defense last season, yielding 110.8 ground yards per game.

Chiefs Trends

Since 2018, the Chiefs boast rock-solid records with regular-season ATS, going 27-20-1 overall ($500) and 23-13 versus AFC competition ($870). During this span, Kansas City owns a sterling 8-2 ATS mark, for a robust return of $580. When serving as a pregame favorite of 5.5-plus points during the regular season, the Chiefs have a 2-0 record with Mahomes under center ($200).

Excluding the playoffs, Kansas City has registered 30-plus points at home 12 times over the last three seasons; and yet, the Chiefs are merely 11-11 when tracking ATS home outings (minus-$110). The Chiefs are 9-0 ATS ($900) in their last nine regular-season meetings with playoff teams from the previous season. Perhaps even more impressive, Kansas City owns a 10-1 ATS record ($890) when scoring fewer than 30 points in a game.

Last year, the Chiefs led the NFL in both passing yards (303.4 per game) and total offense (415.8 yards per contest). Given the heavy emphasis on passing, Kansas City had a middle-of-the-pack showing with rushing last season, averaging 112.4 ground yards per contest.

Charting the defensive side for 2020, Kansas City ranked 11th overall with points allowed (22.2 per game). This outperformed their yardage ranking, making them one of the league’s most efficient units (yards allowed per point allowed).he Chiefs finished 14th in passing defense (236.2 yards per outing), 16th in total defense (358.3 yards per contest) and 21st in rushing defense (122.1 ground yards per game).

Total Trends

Last season, the Browns posted solid gains with Over/Under, going 9-7 overall ($130) and 7-5 versus AFC competition ($150). The Chiefs, in turn, were consistently mediocre with Over/Under results, going 8-8 overall (minus-$80), 4-4 at home (minus-$40), 7-7 as the betting favorite (minus-$70) and 6-6 versus AFC clubs (minus-$60). Combined teams were 17-15 on the Over side (plus-$50).

Also, when charting the teams’ six head-to-head encounters since 2010 (including last year’s postseason clash), the cumulative average comes out to 39.0 points — well below Sunday’s O/U projection of 54.5 points. The Browns are 7-1 on the Over sidein their last eight games involving a game-time temperature of 50 degrees or warmer ($590).