Each week, BetPrep NFL Sharp “Tommy The Hitman” discusses every game through the eyes of a professional sports bettor with host and 30-year sports talk radio vet Jody McDonald of CBS Sports Radio.
Here are some recent highlights from the latest episode of Hot Read Hits, the official NFL podcast of BetPrep:
Let’s review my best bets for NFL Week 4.
Giants +7.5 at the Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST AND UNDER 42
My Power Rank was NO by 6.5. The Saints are hiding their passing game with an offense that isn’t clicking. Winston has just 20, 22, and 21 pass attempts. The Saints are averaging 21.3 yards per possession, ahead of only the Bears (19.8 yards).
The Giants offense is likely to be hamstrung by only somewhat healthy WR Kenny Golladay facing NO’s top CB Marshon Lattimore, who’s surrendered an anemic 42.6 passer rating on throws. Golladay ran fewer Week 3 routes than Kadarius Toney.
This is the Saints first game back in New Orleans in a month due to damage caused by Hurricane Ida.
Six of the last seven Saints games with Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill as the starter have gone under with only one game over 41 combined points (45 at Philly). And Giants games have gone under 15 of the last 19 with Jason Garrett as the OC.
The Giants are likely without WR Sterling Shepard, WR Darius Slayton. They are on their fourth LG in as many weeks. Golladay has not been 100% all year. LB Blake Martinez is out for the year.
The Saints are without LT Armstead and C McCoy still. But Daniel Jones continues to struggle against pressure and the Saints are top 10 in most major pass-rushing categories. Given the cluster NYG offensive injuries, the lack of explosiveness for the Saints and inability to get a big lead, plus offensive line injuries, a low total seems likely. In a low total game where the Saints project to run the ball heavily, getting over a touchdown is huge.
Take the points with the Giants and the under.
Chiefs (minus-1 from minus-7) vs. the Eagles and Seahawks (from plus-3 to plus-9) at the 49ers, Sunday, 1 p.m. and 4:05 p.m., respectively.