Givin Props: NFL Week 7

Kyle Pitts #8 of the Atlanta Falcons in action against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Image Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Each week, BetPrep’s Player Prop Guru and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses how the site’s historical data shaped his picks with Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Props Podcast.

Brad, you are on fire. You entered Week 6 at 30-17 and then in Week 6 you go 9-1. So you are 23-5 on the last three shows. Fantastic. Let’s see if we can keep it going. We start in Miami where Myles Gaskin is losing snaps but is still at 33.5 rushing yards and you like the Under.

Look, it’s a low number. Until the final snap is played, I’m in danger of losing this bet. This is all about rushing attempts. Five and I should be a winner. Thirteen? No chance. But in the last five games after the five and 13: two, five and five. And then the yards 25, 65, 13, 3, 25 and nine. I don’t love the bet. I don’t think it’s a crazy winner. But I think this is a 60% bet and I have to do it.

Sam Darnold Under 240.5 in his return to New York. We have Matt Rhule saying they want to be primarily a running team. Is this coach-speak you believe?

Yes this is a case where I actually do believe what the coach is saying. And besides that, Darnold has gone Under this 17 of 23 times. That’s 75%. He’s gone way Under his last two games. Now the coach says, “We’re going to redefine who we are. And we’re going to run the football and we’re going to protect our quarterback and we’re not going to turn the ball over anymore.” I don’t think that’s coach-speak.

D’Andre Swift Over 35.5 receiving yards with Matthew Stafford and the Rams awaiting Detroit. 

Swift plays in the garbage time. He’s the prototype garbage-time player and this game probably will be 38-10 in the fourth quarter. Then it’s “Goff to Swift, eight-yard gain. Goff to Swift, six-yard gain. Goff to Swift. nine-yard gain.” The expected game script says this number is way too low. I’ll take my chances here.

Kyle Pitts Over 49.5 receiving yards. Even in his breakout game against the Jets, his target share was only about 20%. His fantasy owners want him to get to about 30%. But he’s so explosive that even 15% puts you in a good position to win this bet.

Pitts in his last four games has gone 73, 35, 50, 119 yards. He’s had targets of eight, six, three, nine and 10. The only game we’re drawing dead is the one where he was three (targets) and 35 (yards). He’s averaging 62 yards a game now and I’m hoping that 100-yard game makes Matt Ryan more comfortable throwing to him.

You compared Pitts to 2020 Justin Jefferson as a guy who maybe starts out a little slowly and then just completely takes off. It’s about that time now.

Yes, exactly. And I don’t think that’s a crazy comment, Michael I really don’t.

Staying with Atlanta, Calvin Ridley Over 68.5 receiving yards. 

He more or less led the league in receiving last year. I put him in on BetPrep and, no BS, the site is just incredible for researching these props. It’s so easy, it’s changed my life. I put in the last 25 games, and he’s Over 16 times, 64%. In fairness, recent games are more important, for sure. He’s only Over one of his last five. He did go over his last game. So this comes down to whether I trust the player. The Dolphins are hurt in the secondary. Even if Xavien Howard and Byron Jones play, they won’t be 100%. I would have made the numer more like 78.5.

Cordarrelle Patterson over 34.5 receiving yards for this WR/RB (in fantasy). 

I always thought this guy was a decent player. I’m not just saying it now. No BS. Last four games, he’s gone 58, 82, 82 and 60 on seven, seven, six and nine targets. He’s playing well. I don’t think they’re just gonna say, “We don’t want you there anymore. Thank you, Cordarrelle, for your contributions.” I think he’s a real integral part of this team right now. My real goal here with these Falcons bets is to go 2-1. I think there’s a far better chance that happens than going 1-2.

Cole Kmet Under 3.5 catches.

Kmet 14-5 to the Under in his career. 4-2 this year. Averaging 2.3 catches a game.  I get it: Tampa Bay is going to force you to pass. But I hate the coach so much, not personally — I’m sure Matt Nagy is probably a lovely human being — but just for football. He may just run anyway, seriously. If I was offered a million dollars to pick Kmet’s catches and had to choose between four and two, I would go with the two. So that’s just what thai comes down to.

Corey Davis Over 3.5 catches for the Jets against Bill Belichick and the Patriots at Foxboro.

This is probably my least favorite one to be honest. But I think this is maybe 60%. He’s 14-6 his last 20 Over.  He’s 4-1 this year; but it’s not like he’s been clearing the hurdles by a lot.

Miles Sanders Under 65.5 rushing yards.

Nick Sirianni makes Andy Reid look like Bo Schembechler. I live here. I help cover the team a little bit for NBC here. So I follow this team very closely. I think (Sirianni’s) a smart guy. He’s saying, “We have to get Miles Sanders the ball.” He’s saying he wants to run more. But Jalen Hurts is going to do his RPOs and go with the passes no matter what the play is called, or just run it himself. So I’m going to dare this guy to get 66 yards. I don’t even think he’s going to hit 50 — and I think Sanders is a really good player.

Related to the expected rain and wind Sunday night in Northern California, you like both Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garopollo Under 225.5 yards. 

I’m getting a free roll here. If the weather is not that bad, and you say even 20 miles per hour according to the physicists doesn’t impact the passing much at all, well then I’ll pay the juice and get out of it. But if it’s 50 mph gusts, I think this is just a great bet. Jimmy Garoppolo his last 15 games is Over eight times. Basically a coin flip with neutral conditions. He’s averaging 218 yards a game. Carson Wentz is just 7-9 on the Over his last 16, averaging 228 yards. So these are fair numbers with good weather and we expect the conditions to be far from perfect.

Similarly, you like Deebo Samuel Under 67.5 receiving yards.

LOVE the player. One of my favorites. Again, if the weather is okay, I will pay the juice and get out of this.