Givin Props: NFL Week 4

Najee Harris #22 of the Pittsburgh Steelers in action during the game against the Detroit Lions at Heinz Field on November 14, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Image Credit: Joe Sargent/Getty Images

Each week, BetPrep’s Player Prop Guru and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses how the site’s historical data shaped his picks with Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Props Podcast.

Let’s start our Week 4 Givin Props with Najee Harris, who you like OVER 13.5 rushing attempts.

Brad: I expect a huge workload from Harris. I love the fact he’s getting about 100% of snaps. Most guys will see a situation where he may get his 15-20 carries but someone else gets eight or nine. We don’t have that in Pittsburgh. So this basically is just a true projection: Do I expect Pittsburgh to run the ball 14 times in this game? I understand they’re an underdog. But I expect this game to be competitive. I think I’m going to win this one pretty easily.

Next is the seemingly forgotten Robby Anderson OVER 44.5 receiving yards. 

Brad: I’ve taken Coach Rhule at his word saying that, “We need to get a better job of getting Robbie Anderson involved in our offense.” He said Anderson has been open but Darnold has not been finding him. Maybe this is BS. But they paid this guy. He’s a core player for them. He’s a part of their future.  I think there’s a good chance to have a breakout game. And I also expect at least 40 passing attempts for the Panthers, who will be without Christian McCaffrey and all his expected targets.

Little bit of an odd-ball prop: Robert Woods OVER 2.5 rushing yards.

Brad: His last 16 games he has 24 carries and he’s averaging about seven yards per rush. I actually love this bet. It’s my best bet of the day. It’s the highest chance of winning even though it is an obscure bet. I understand I am at the pure mercy of Sean McVay. They could not have one or two of those jet sweeps in the game plan and I’m drawing dead. But they’re going to be pressed to score against the Cardinals so I think they’re going to have everything on the table and that’s usually a Woods rush.

Damian Harris UNDER 59.5 total yards. Not rushing, but total. 

Brad: I’m pretty happy with myself for finding this number. His rushing prop against the Bucs, who no one runs on, is 45.5. I like the UNDER on that. But then I looked at his combined yards: 59.5. That was a mistake. His receiving Over/Under is 5.5. So these two combined should be 51. We’re getting 59 and I don’t even know if he catches a pass — he usually doesn’t. He only averaged about four yards a game receiving.

Allen Robinson OVER 50.5 receiving yards for a Bears team that had one yard passing last week. Or as they say in Chicago, “One yards.”

Brad: This is a crazy overreaction in my opinion. Robertson’s a good player. His last 35 games he’s gone Over this Michael Over 70% of time 25 and 10. So this is something of a minus-250, minus-230 favorite in the past couple years. Since 2020, he’s 13 and six and that’s with 0-3 this year. The recent trends are against him and that’s why I’m getting such value here. But the quarterback is going to be Andy Dalton or Nick Foles — no difference. It won’t be Justin Fields, who was totally overwhelmed in Week 3.

And note this is a Lions pass defense that has allowed 11 yards per pass attempt. So easy pickings.

While one of those Robinson games we just mentioned was one we liked the Under on because of Jalen Ramsey covering him, the WR who is likely to draw Ramsey this week is DeAndre Hopkins, who you like UNDER 75.5 receiving yards. 

Brad: Ramsey is like the free bonus. Hopkins has gone Under eight of his last 12. So the trends are backing me. Christian Kirk has been more involved this year than last. Chase Edmunds is more involved in the passing game than last year. Kyler Murray also has Rondelle Moore and A.J. Green now. He’s spreading it around. Now you just throw Jalen Ramsey on top of it.

Mike Gesicki OVER 29.5 receiving yards.

Brad: I thought this number would be 41. His last 11 games, Gesicki has gone Over 10 times and he’s averaging 49. Last week he did it with Jacoby Brissett as the starter. I just don’t know why that number is so low. I think he goes WAY Over this.

Podcast favorite or actually our favorite fade, Mecole Hardman UNDER 3.5 catches

Brad: I’ve taken his Under all three games this year. I did lose Week 2. But I don’t think I am being stubborn. He’s 27-7 Under in his career and 10-1 Under his last 11. I get that teams are daring the Chiefs and Mahomes to throw to Hardman but big deal. He’s doing nothing anyway. I’m going to make this kid prove it to me.

Finally, Hunter Henry OVER 28.5 receiving yards and I have to say I think Henry is the best receiving weapon in New England.

Brad: I do factor in his new team but in his last 33 games, he’s 27-6 Over the number. So he should be a minus-500 favorite here. Now, the Patriots are playing Tampa Bay. Everyone’s receiving yards have to go up. Every rushing total has to go down. Say if just throwing a number out, they normally run the ball 22 times in a game. Now it’s going to be 16. So maybe you pick up six passes. One of them is probably going to Henry and that extra catch could turn a par into a winning bet. But listen, he’s been going Over this number anyway. I like the player. I like the matchup. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doubles what he’s supposed to do here. Henry will go Over pretty easily.