Givin Props: NFL Week 14

Nov 7, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) runs with the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium.
Image Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Each week, BetPrep’s Player Prop Guru and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses how the site’s historical data shaped his picks with Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Props Podcast.

So a rare losing week last week, 3-5, dropping your season record on the podcast to 76-40, still 65.5%, which is as good as you could have hoped to do. We have eight picks on the show this week. Let’s start with Atlanta where you like everyone’s favorite rookie TE in August Kyle Pitts to go Under 3.5 catches against the Panthers.

Brad: This number is just too high. It’s because of his pedigree, I think he’s getting a little bit too much respect, which I get. It’s not his fault that the Falcons don’t throw him the ball. We think he should get over four catches every game and I include myself here. But he hasn’t so why should we expect him to? He’s under now six times in a row. And it’s not like he’s stuck on four. He’s gone 2–3-4-3-2-4. That’s more like an expected three catches. And again, you say, one catch, big deal. Well, it’s a big deal. What are the odds when a guy should get three that he’s going to land on four instead of five? Very high. It’s like if a soccer team is expected to get three goals but they set it at 3.5, well, it can only land probably on four numbers and you’re winning with three of them, right? So the smaller the number the bigger the value of these small differences that really are not small. This number is sort of stuck in the time where he had those great back-to-back games before this run of bad games. So I’m going to dare Pitts to get four catches and beat me.

Another tight end, Mark Andrews Over 4.5 catches for the Ravens against the Browns.

Brad: Andrews is such a consistent performer. He’s gone Over 4.5 catches 13 of his last 18. And 10 of his last 11 he’s had at least four catches. So this should be a stone-cold five but there can’t be ties, the casinos say, so we get 4.5. It’s also been reported that the Ravens want to go more uptempo. That means more plays and more passes and more betting goodness in this case. I think this is an over 60% chance to win, easily. Just on the math.

Similarly, you like Marquise Brown Over 4.5 catches, too. 

Brad: I thought I had a great deal on the yards since his average depth of target is still 12.6 yards but it went down from 55 to 53.5. So I feel cheated. The numbers rarely move aways from me but the market disagrees with me. I do trust my numbers over the market though because the market has proven to be dumb. The 4.5 targets is in play because Brown also can catch screens and things closer to the line of scrimmage.  Brown has gone over 4.5 catches five games in a row and eight of 11 this season. And again, he’s gone Over 3.5 in 10 of the 11. So even if he loses, he’s right there. And he’s got at least four catches in 10 of his last 11. This means that most of the numbers below four are not even in play. So if it can only basically be one number to lose and five, six, seve to win. He’s going to be 4-to-7 here and I lose with 25% of the numbers. Am I saying it’s a 75% bet? No, not quite. But I do think there’s a 67% chance he goes over this number.

Nick Chubb Over 68.5 rushing yards for the Browns against these Ravens.

Brad: A few weeks ago, we gave out one of these bets with David Montgomery against the Ravens Over 54.5. My number was so much higher and it’s the same thing against the Ravens again with Chubb. When I saw 68.5 for Nick Chubb, who is basically like Dalvin Cook, it’s just 12 yards too light. In the games where Kareem Hunt has played, the last 18 games, Chubb has gone over this 13 times. Now one of these games was the last time the Browns played the Ravens. He only got seven carries. But no matter how banged up the Ravens secondary is, the Browns are going to want to run Chubb. After that last game, just two weeks ago, where they lost despite four picks by Lamar Jackson, it’s impossible for me to believe that they’re ever going to let that happen again. This is me playing amateur psychiatrist. But they tried to throw it 50 times with Mayfield and lost. Baltimore is given up the fewest rushing yards but they’re eighth in yards allowed per carry – that isn’t enough to put me off of Chubb. Maybe Chubb doesn’t average his usual 5.0 per carry but it will be close enough. He doesn’t need more than 13-14 totes here.

Devin Singletary under 31.5 rushing yards versus the Bucs. Do you feel a little bit like you’re whistling past the graveyard when you go Under these low numbers with a running back? 

Brad: I lost on this type of bet with Mike Davis and Myles Gaskin. I’ve won, too. But I get it. You can’t relax until the game is over. You’re a 16-yard carry from losing. And  I don’t think Singletary is bad. But the Bills don’t like him. So the fact I think he’s decent, who cares? Singletary has gone Under five of eight games. So right off the bat, 63% of the time, he is going Under. That’s against the average team in the NFL. Now, he’s going against a team in Tampa Bay that you cannot run the ball against. This seems like a game where he’ll get his six carries for 16 yards. Plus I like the Bucs in this game so that means even more expected passes for the Bills, who threw more passes than would have been expected in neutral weather in the horrible weather on Monday night in Buffalo. That’s how badly they want to pass generally.

For more of Brad’s Week 14 picks, listen to the full Givin Props podcast. And subscribe so that you get the podcast the moment it’s published. Reviews are also much appreciated.