Givin Props: NFL Week 11

Christian McCaffrey #22 of the Carolina Panthers looks on during the first half of their game against the Washington Football Team at Bank of America Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Image Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Each week, BetPrep’s Player Prop Guru and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses how the site’s historical data shaped his picks with Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Props Podcast.

Brad another solid week in Week 10 when you went 5-2, raising your record to a very easy to calculate .667 for the year at 62-31. So let’s keep it going in Week 11. We start with a guy you got right on the Under last week but now you like A.J. Brown Over 72.5 receiving yards.

Brad: We faded Brown last week at 77.5 yards because he was going against Marshon Lattimore, who I just respect a ton. Now he’s going into maybe, arguably, the worst pass defense in the league. And the reason I say arguably is, when you’re down every single game by 30 points, the opponent stops passing; so your NFL rank improves.

Using BetPrep, Brown’s gone Over this total seven of the last 15 games, not quite 50/50, averaging about 73 yards a game. So basically, the number is fair. But there was a term I learned in my economics class, ceteris paribus: “All things being equal.” If all things were equal, this is a fair number. But they aren’t. This is not an opponent with an average pass defense.

Brown killed Houston twice last year. And I’m going to be honest: I’m not even worried about the game flow with most of the people expecting a Titans blowout/less passing. I think this game is going to be close.

Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 catches.

Brad: The best compliment I get is, “Brad, this is obvious. I could have told you that one.” Thank you. I’m not trying to reinvent the wheel here. The best compliment you can give me is I found something that was just obvious. Last 16 games. I went through the BetPrep grinder. What’s he done? 12-4 to the Over. Then I spoke to a buddy of mine, “With Cam what does that look  like?” That’s a very fair point. He went 23-9 Over the two years with Cam,  almost 75%. And he’s 75% without Cam. He’s averaging 7.6 catches per game in that time frame. Are you freaking kidding me? Look, anything can lose. But this is as good a bet as you’re ever going to get.

DeVonta Smith Under 4.5 catches.

Brad: This is the opposite as with Brown, or what Brown was last week. Smith is five of 10 going over this, averaging 4.2 catches a game. So like we said with Brown, this number makes sense. “He’s averaging 4.2, all right, we make it 4.5.” He’s .500 beating it. So it’s 50/50. But that’s if the matchup is average and this matchup against the Saints and Lattimore is not easy. This to me definitely characterizes as a bad matchup. Plus the Eagles are not throwing much by design of late so it’s hard to expect more than 20 passing attempts.

Tyler Boyd Over 37.5 receiving yards.

Brad: We put it through the BetPrep grinder. Boyd in his last 30 games came out on the Over side 20 times or 67%. Okay, but what about this year: 4-5. So I’m like, “Wow, he’s below that most often this year.” That surprised me. Still, balancing everything out, I really feel this number should be 45 yards, which is what he’s averaging this year per game. And you can say,”7.5 yards, big deal.” But when it’s 7.5 out of 37.5, that is a big deal. Maybe I’m giving too much benefit of the doubt to what Boyd was prior to 2021. But I expect a lot of offense in this game. The conditions are obviously perfect for passing. So we don’t have to worry about crazy winds in Cleveland or Cincinnati or Pittsburgh. And I just stubbornly still think Boyd’s a decent player.

David Montgomery Over 55.5 rushing yards. 

Brad: This is my favorite bet of the day. Montgomery is averaging  80 yards per game the last 11 games and has had at least 56 rushing yards in 10 of those 11 contests. I could not believe this number. I always say show your work. I can’t guarantee I’m going to win of course. I could go 0-50 on bets I think are this good. But you don’t even need math on this one, though all the math is on the Over side. This is just a bad number. If I lose, I’ll sleep like a newborn baby — does a newborn baby even sleep well, actually? Whatever, I’ll sleep very, very well, if I lose this bet because I know this is just a really good play. A great play.

For more of Brad’s picks, listen to the full Givin Props podcast.