Givin Props: NFL Week 10

Austin Ekeler #30 of the Los Angeles Chargers reacts during the first half of the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on November 28, 2021 in Denver, Colorado.
Image Credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Each week, BetPrep’s Player Prop Guru and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses how the site’s historical data shaped his picks with Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Props Podcast.

Brad, big bounceback last week at 7-1 after your first losing week since we started doing this in 2020. Now 57-29 for the year. We start Week 10 with Jordan Howard Under 48.5 rushing yards.

Brad: I’m giving him his due. He’s played well. But I don’t want to overrate him or overrate his situation. There’s a lot of reasons why I don’t like Jordan Howard this week. First of all, he’s sharing time with Boston Scott, let me make that clear. They’ve basically been more or less 50/50 in a timeshare. And the Eagles have had game flow work perfectly for them these past two weeks. And he had 57 and 71 yards in those games. But the first game they won 44-6 and it’s pretty safe to say they’re not going to win this game against Denver like that. Last week, they played the worst run defense in the NFL. I’m not expecting them to win this game. That’s number one. And I just think a lot of things have to happen for Howard to get those 49 yards. I don’t think he’s the kind of guy that’s gonna bust off a 20-yard run. So he’s probably going to need real volume, at least 14 carries. I’ll dare him to do it.

Matt Ryan Under 286.5 passing yards coming off the great game against the Saints.

Brad: They’re an underdog against Dallas, so what the hell am I thinking with game flow not necessarily working in our favor. I was on BetPrep. He’s averaging 269 yards a game right this year. So right off the bat, the over/under is about 17 yards higher. But beyond the data, I just don’t love the offensive talent here. I know Cordarrelle Patterson has been terrific. We’ve talked about Kyle pits quite a bit. But with no Calvin Ridley, the wide receiver play stinks. Furthermore I think we’re going to see 35 minutes of the Cowboys with the ball to 25 with Atlanta. I just don’t think we’re gonna see a ton of Matt Ryan on the field. And 287 yards is a lot. Between the data and the receiving personnel they have, I don’t see Ryan hitting it.

Ryan’s top wide receiver is Russell Gage, who you like Under 53.5 receiving yards.

Brad: There’s certainly correlation here. That’s okay. There’s nothing wrong with winning two units. He’s gone under three of five games and he’s averaging 32 yards the last two games. Gage is a very middling receiver. But given he’s their No. 1 WR now, there’s a good chance Trevon Diggs, Dallas’ top corner, is covering him a decent amount and that’s a mismatch. So to me, he’s a very average player. And they made the over under 53.5, which is not a very average number. It’s too high, about 10 yards too high.

Austin Ekeler Over 36.5 receiving yards against the Vikings. 

Brad: Again, I was on the BetPrep site, which I say this every single week. It’s easy to work for a company when you love the product. This is where I get my information. My buddy is a fellow professional gambler and when we talk asks me, “Did you put it through the grinder yet?” Meaning the BetPrep site. This was put through. Ekeler in his last 34 games, he’s gone over 21 times, about 62%. Okay, and he’s gone over five of his last seven this year. Throwing out the peculiar receiving bagel in Week 1, he’s averaging 47 yards in that span. So he’s been going over consistently by about 10 yards. And this game against the Vikings is the second highest over/under on the board. Last week, his O/U was 47.5. Now it’s 11 yards less? I call BS; give me the Over.

Adrian Peterson Under 38.5 rushing yards in his second game for the Titans replacing Derrick Henry, versus Saints.

Brad: He only got a 33% snap count. McNichols got 45%. Forman got 21%. He was lucky to get 10 carries and is going to need at least 13, I expect, to go Over 38.5. Do I think he’s gonna get 13? No, I don’t. I would have made Peterson’s total a full 10 yards lower.

A.J. Brown Under 77.5 receiving yards vs. Saints. 

Brad: I love the player. But he’s gone under 77.5 in five of the eight games this year. He’s averaging about 60. After I bet Under 77.5, I saw his catches were 5.5 and I’m debating whether that’s the better bet because Brown is so explosive. If you prefer Under 5.5 catches, that’s fine. Part of this is Marcus Lattimore, who has given up some big plays but is generally a borderline shut-down corner and maybe they use him on the other receiver and double Brown. This is a  low scoring game, and I just haven’t seen Latimore get torched much.

Jared Goff Under 251.5 passing yards vs. Steelers. 

Brad: There are a lot of reasons like this one. First off, I put it through that BetPrep grinder and he’s gone under eight of his last 11. So this is a guy who’s trending poorly. In five of his last seven he’s been Under, too, and he’s averaging 236 yards. And this is Pittsburgh. The Steelers are  never easy.  You know, it’s always a harder-than-average game. So this number is too high. I don’t like the receivers at all for the Lions. And I don’t trust Goff. And I like the Steelers defense.