Each week, BetPrep Sharp and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses expected win totals, division odds, Super Bowl favorites, and potential award winners with host and BetPrep Editor Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. It’s the official futures podcast of BetPrep, a free sports betting research site that empowers bettors with the same tools both the sharps and the sportsbooks use.
Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Futures Podcast.
With 14 weeks in the books, let’s start with the MVP voting where you like Tom Brady paying the juice at minus-150.
Brad: With four games left in the season, we’ve gotten to a point where I feel pretty good about who’s going to win what. While there is time for Brady to lose this, look at their schedule. It’s going to be hard for him to have a bad game. Carolina twice, the Jets and New Orleans. I know the Saints have given Brady fits in the past. But the Bucs are a double-digit favorite. But if you want to take Aaron Rodgers for $25 plus-600 to cover yourself, that’s a good strategy. He’s the only other guy who really has a chance. Rodgers has been incredibly efficient. He has 27 touchdowns in four interceptions in 12 games. But Brady crushes him in yards and touchdowns. He’s first in QBR. But at 6-to-1, if Rodgers wins you still make $150 betting Brady, too. And if Brady wins as expected, you still make money. I actually put Brady at 80% to win and think Rodgers wins once out of the five times.
The Jaguars are at 3.5 wins? That seems high. You like the Under.
Brad: Have you ever seen a more dysfunctional team than the Jaguars right now? They have two wins. So they have to go 2-2 to beat you. They play at New England and at the Colts. I know you have to give some win shares there but I’m going to say that’s two losses, period. Those teams are going to be double-digit favorites. Their other two games are not quite 50/50. I’ll say they are a little better than that against the Jets in New Jersey and home against the Texans (who killed them in Week 1). So instead of having a 25% chance to win two games, I’ll go all the way to 30%. That means this bet wins 70% of the time. That’s a big edge. The key is that I don’t see a path where they beat New England or Indy. So we should be laying minus-225 and instead it’s just minus-115.
Everyone’s favorite team every summer, the Browns now Under 9.5 wins, minus-140
Brad: So they need to go 3-1 to beat you. I’m giving them a loss at the Packers. That means they need to sweep the Raiders at home, at the Steelers and the Bengals at home. There are no layup games where, not even the Raiders at home. (This was recorded before the Browns were decimated by COVID.) This is another situation where they should have the team on an even number but they don’t want ties so they are basically giving you a free win. They are by far more likely to land on nine wins than on 10. But they need the 10 to beat you. The Raiders have a puncher’s chance. The Steelers are going to be tough to beat in Pittsburgh and the Bengals are a good team. If you think they’re going to lose at Green Bay, which I strongly believe, this is a great bet.
You’ve faded the Saints all year but now you like them Over 7.5 wins, laying 165.
Brad: I say I bet numbers, not teams. I took the Saints under 11.5, under 10.5 and under 10. We’ve talked about them almost every week here. And I’m going to win those bets, obviously. But now it’s 7.5. I think the schedule is really, really favorable. Give them a loss at Tampa Bay. But then it’s Miami at home, Carolina home and at Atlanta. I honestly believe they will be favored in all three. So I expect this team to finish with nine wins. And I would have set the total at 8.0. I don’t mind paying the juice here. Even if I’m off a game, the Saints going 2-2 wins this bet.
The Vikings Under 8.5 wins, minus-185
Brad: We’ve given out Vikings over 7.5 and over 8.5 before. The Lions loss changed everything. That turned the team to one I really thought would win nine games to one that is going to win probably eight. And I’m worried they don’t cash the 7.5, to be honest. You have at Green Bay. The Rams at home. And the Bears twice. That’s freakin hard to go 3-1 and get to 9-8. They can absolutely lose one game to the Bears and I expect them to, honestly. And I think the Bears stink. The Vikings just find ways to lose. It’s such a Minnesota thing.
For more of Brad’s picks, including NBA futures, listen to the full Givin Futures podcast.