Sunday – AFC Championship
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
(Line: KC -7.5, O/U 54.5)
Factoring in recent trends, the Bengals are 36-30-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2018. That’s $300 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Cincinnati posted strong ATS results when playing on the road (21-12, $780), facing AFC competition (30-19-1, $910) and taking on winning teams (20-12, $680). The 2021 ATS numbers are also robust, at 12-7 overall ($430), 7-3 as the betting underdog ($370) and 10-4 versus AFC foes ($560). Also, the Bengals are 8-0 ATS from the last eight times their opponent scored 29-plus points the previous week ($800). This year’s Bengals had a No. 7 ranking for both passing offense (averaging 259.0 yards per game) and scoring offense (27.1 ppg). Cincinnati also had the league’s fifth-best rush defense, allowing 102.5 ground yards per game.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are 42-32-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $680 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Kansas City enjoyed excellent ATS results when facing teams with winning records (27-18-1, $720) and taking on AFC competition (34-22, $980). The ATS numbers for 2021 are largely pedestrian, though, at 10-9 overall ($10), 6-5 at home ($50) and 10-9 as the betting favorite ($10). Citing other trends, Kansas City has an 8-1 ATS when immediately following its last nine straight-up victories ($690). Conversely, counting the last six Cincinnati-Kansas City matchups, the Over has a 1-5 record when the Bengals are averaging less than 275 yards passing per game (minus-$450). Kansas City collected the fourth-most defensive touchdowns this season (4). The Chiefs offense ranked third in total offense (396.8 yards per game), fourth in passing offense (281.8 yards) and fourth in scoring offense (28.2 ppg).
For the season, Cincinnati and Tennessee are 8-11 and 12-6-1 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 20-17-1 ($130). Charting their last six head-to-head meetings, the Bengals and Chiefs tallied combined averages of 43.7 points per game — well below Sunday’s 54.5 total. Also, the Bengals have toppled the Over just once in their last 11 January games (minus-$1000).