Saturday NFL Divisional Round Trends
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
(Line: TEN -3.5, O/U 47.5)
Factoring in recent trends, the Bengals are 35-30-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2018. That’s $200 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Cincinnati posted strong ATS results when playing on the road (20-12, $680), facing AFC competition (29-19-1, $810) and taking on winning teams (19-12, $580). The 2021 ATS numbers are also encouraging, at 11-7 overall ($330), 6-3 as the betting underdog ($270) and 9-4 versus AFC foes ($460). Also, the Bengals are 7-1 ATS from the last eight times their opponent scored 18-plus points the previous week ($590). This year’s Bengals had a No. 7 ranking for both passing offense (averaging 259.0 yards per game) and scoring offense (27.1 ppg). Cincinnati also had the league’s fifth-best rush defense, allowing 102.5 ground yards per game.
Among the relevant trends, the Titans are 35-33-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$130 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Tennessee posted underwhelming ATS marks when playing at home (17-16-1, minus-$60), facing AFC competition (25-26-1, minus-$360) and serving as the betting favorite (15-19-1, minus-$590). The ATS numbers for 2021 are somewhat better, with the Titans going 10-7 overall ($230), 6-3 at home ($270) and 5-2 versus teams with winning records ($280). The Titans are 8-1 ATS ($690) the last nine times their pregame total exceeded 45 points. (It’s 47.5 for Saturday.) Tennessee owned the NFL’s second-best rush defense this season, allowing only 84.6 yards per game. The Titans offense ranked fifth in rushing offense (141.4 ypg), spurred on by pre-injury Derrick Henry rushing for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns in the season’s first half. Henry’s slated to return to the lineup Saturday.
For the season, Cincinnati and Tennessee are 8-10 and 8-9 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 16-19 (minus-$490). Charting their last six head-to-head meetings, the Bengals and Titans tallied combined averages of 43.0 points per game — a tick below Saturday’s total. Citing other trends, the Bengals have hit the Over just once in their last 10 January games (minus-$890). Also, chronicling the last five Cincinnati-Tennessee matchups, the Over is merely 1-3-1 … when the Titans’ implied odds for victory are less than 70 percent (minus-$230).