NFL Divisional Round Trends: 49ers-Packers

Aaron Jones #33 of the Green Bay Packers runs with the ball in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Rams during the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lambeau Field on January 16, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Image Credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Saturday – NFC Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

(Line: GB -5.5, O/U 47)

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are 34-34-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2018. That’s minus-$340 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, San Francisco posted subpar ATS marks when encountering teams with winning records (15-18-1, minus-$480), serving as the betting underdog (12-18, minus-$780) and playing on the road (16-18-1, minus-$380). The ATS numbers for 2021 are more encouraging, with the Niners going 10-8 overall ($120), 6-4 on the road ($160) and 3-1 as the betting underdog ($190). Citing other trends, the 49ers are 9-1 ATS from the last 10 times they scored 30 or fewer points the previous week ($790). Also, San Francisco has a 2-7-1 ATS when charting the last 10 times an NFC North opponent passed for more than 250 yards the previous game (minus-$570). San Francisco ranked fifth in defensive sacks this season (48). The Niners offense ranked seventh in total offense (375.7 yards per game) and 13th in scoring offense (25.1 ppg).

Green Bay Packers

Among the relevant trends, the Packers are 40-28-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $920 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Green Bay enjoyed superb ATS marks when playing at home (23-12, $980), facing NFC competition (29-22-1, $480), representing the betting favorite (29-21, $590) and kicking off in the Central Time Zone (30-14, $1460). The 2021 ATS numbers are similarly stellar, with the Packers going 12-5 overall ($650), 7-1 at home ($590) and 9-3 against NFC foes ($570). In another trend, the Packers have a 13-1 ATS when immediately following a straight-up loss ($1190). Green Bay’s defense racked up the sixth-most interceptions this season (18). The Packers offense, despite the sluggish start, finished 10th overall in both total offense (365.6 yards per game) and scoring offense (26.5 ppg).

Total Trends

This season, San Francisco and Green Bay are 8-10 and 8-9 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 16-19 (minus-$490). Citing other trends, the Packers have surpassed the Over in each of their last 11 January games ($1100). Also, chronicling their last six head-to-head meetings, the Niners and Packers boast combined averages of 49.0 points per game — slightly above Saturday’s total.