Thursday Night Football Trends: Week 7

Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns throws a pass against the Baltimore Ravens in the first half at FirstEnergy Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio.
Image Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images


Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns

(Line: CLE -2, O/U: 41.5)

Denver Broncos

Among the relevant trends here, the Broncos are 27-26-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$1,860 from a straight $110 bet. In that same period, however, Denver posted positive ATS marks as the betting underdog (20-14, $460), being on the road (15-12, $180) and playing in the Eastern Time Zone (8-5, $250).

The numbers for 2021 are somewhat bland, with the Broncos owning a 3-3 ATS record (minus-$30), 2-1 ATS on the road ($90) and 2-3 versus AFC opponents (minus-$130). Citing another notable trend, Denver has a 10-2 ATS record in its last 12 games when that week’s opponent lost the previous game ($780).

After six weeks of play, the Broncos offense ranks 13th in total offense (averaging 368.3 yards per week), 13th in passing offense (250.8 yards per game), 14th in rushing offense (117.5 ground yards per week) and 22nd in scoring offense (21.0 points per game).

Cleveland Browns

The Browns have endured shaky ATS results over the last three-plus seasons. For that period, the club has a 24-29-1 overall ATS record (minus-$790), 12-14-1 mark at home (minus-$340), 12-17-1 record as the betting favorite (minus-$670) and 14-24-1 ATS mark versus AFC opponents (minus-$1240).

In 2021, Cleveland has a 3-3 ATS record overall (minus-$30), 1-2 ATS mark at home (minus-$120) and 2-2 record as the betting favorite (minus-$20). Citing another notable trend, the Browns are 0-8 ATS when charting the club’s last eight games of being outscored by at least 10 points the previous week (minus-$880).

Six weeks into this season, the Browns offense ranks first overall in rushing offense (averaging 168.5 ground yards per game), ninth in total offense (396.3 yards per week), ninth in scoring offense (26.0 points per game) and 26th in passing offense (227.8 yards per week).

Total Trends

The Broncos have eclipsed the Over in just 17 of their last 38 games dating back to 2019 (minus-$610). Conversely, the Browns own a 21-17 record with the Over ($230) during the same span of regular-season outings. All combined, that’s a 38-38 track record with the Over (minus-$380 and, if betting the Under, minus-$380). For 2021, Denver and Cleveland are 2-4 and 4-2 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 6-6 (minus-$60).

Also, when citing the teams’ last six head-to-head encounters, the Broncos and Browns have cumulatively posted combined averages of 44.7 points — slightly above this week’s O/U projection of 41.5. In other notable trends, the Broncos are 0-11 with the Over, when chronicling the club’s last 11 games of passing for 300-plus yards the previous outing (minus-$1210).

Also, the Browns are 2-8 with the Over, when tracking Cleveland’s last 10 games with a kickoff time in primetime (minus-$680).