Thursday Night Football Trends: Week 6

Leonard Fournette #7 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers catches a touchdown reception against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 05, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia.
Image Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles

(Line: PHI +6.5, O/U: 52)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Among the relevant trends here, the Bucs are 24-26-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$460 from a straight $110 bet. In that period, Tampa Bay posted marginal ATS marks when playing on the road (13-12-1, minus-$20), facing an NFC opponent (17-21-1, minus-$610) and serving as the betting favorite (12-16-1, minus-$560).

The numbers are even worse when only assessing the Tom Brady Era. For 2020-21 primetime games during the regular season, Tampa Bay has an 0-6 overall ATS record (minus-$660), an 0-6 ATS mark as the betting favorite (minus-$660) and 0-3 ATS when playing on the road (minus-$330).

After five weeks of play this season, the Bucs’ prodigious offense ranks first overall in passing offense (averaging 349.4 yards per week), third in total offense (431.4 yards per game), third in scoring offense (33.4 points per week) and 26th in rushing offense (82.0 yards per game).

Philadelphia Eagles

Among the relevant trends, the Eagles have yielded subpar ATS results over the last three-plus seasons. For that period, the club has a 22-31 overall ATS record (minus-$1210), 11-15 mark at home (minus-$550), 17-23 record versus NFC competition (minus-$830) and 11-13 mark as the betting underdog (minus-$330).

However, when playing in primetime since 2018, Philadelphia owns solid ATS tallies with overall record (9-6, $240), facing NFC foes (9-6, $240), encountering teams with winning records (5-0, $500) and when serving as the betting underdog (5-2, $280).

Five weeks into the 2021 season, the Eagles offense ranks 12th overall in passing offense (256.2 yards per game), 13th in rushing offense (116.4 yards per week), 14th in total offense (372.6) and 16th in scoring offense, averaging 21.0 points per week.

Total Trends

The Bucs have surpassed the Over in 24 of their last 37 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 ($1080). The Eagles own a 17-20 record with the Over during the same span of regular-season games (minus-$500). All combined, that’s a 41-32-1 track record with the Over ($580 or, if betting the Under, minus-$1310).

This year the Bucs and Eagles are 4-1 and 2-3 on the side of the over, respectively, for a combined 6-4 ($160). In other notable trends, the Bucs and Eagles are 5-0 with the Over in their last five head-to-head encounters of Philly’s implied odds to win beingĀ  25 percent or higher ($500). On the flip side, Tampa Bay has an 0-8 ATS record in its last eight games versus NFC East competition, when the Bucs are the betting favorite (minus-$880).

The Eagles are 10-2 with the Under ($780), when charting their last 12 games as moneyline underdogs of less than +250. (Philly’s a +225 underdog for Thursday night.) Conversely, Philadelphia has a 1-7 record with the Over from its last eight games against NFC South teams, when the Eagles scored more than 21 points the previous week (minus-$670).