Thursday Night Football Trends: Week 16

Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans rolls out to pass during a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Nissan Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Jaguars 20-0.
Image Credit: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images


San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans

(Line: TEN +3,5, O/U 44)

San Francisco 49ers

Among the relevant trends, the 49ers are 29-33 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$730 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, San Francisco posted mixed ATS marks when playing on the road (17-14, $160), facing AFC competition (10-5, $450) … but also as the betting favorite (13-22, minus-$1120). The ATS numbers for 2021 are also pedestrian, with the Niners going 7-7 overall (minus-$70), 6-6 as the betting favorite (minus-$60) and 4-3 on the road ($70). Charting other trends, San Francisco has a 9-2 ATS from the last 11 times the team traveled more than 1,000 miles ($680). Conversely, the Niners are 2-8 ATS when chronicling the last 10 times they had four or more red-zone possessions the previous game (minus-$680). Entering Week 16, San Francisco ranks No. 6 in total defense (allowing 321.8 yards per game). The Niners offense is fourth in rushing yards (averaging 142.3 yards), 12th in total offense (366.6 yards), 13th in passing offense (240.0 yards) and 13th in scoring offense (25.7 points per game).

Tennessee Titans

Factoring in recent trends, the Titans are 31-30-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$200 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Tennessee endured mixed ATS results when playing at home (15-15-1, minus-$150), facing teams with winning records (14-14, minus-$140) and encountering NFC competition (9-7, $130). The ATS numbers for 2021 are more consistent, at 8-6 overall ($140), 5-2 as the betting underdog ($280) and 4-3 when playing at home ($70). Citing another trend, the Titans have a 1-7 ATS the last eight games when the point total of the prior game was 45 or less (minus-$670). Tennessee boasts the NFL’s No. 2-ranked rush defense, allowing only 86.9 ground yards per game. The Titans offense ranks seventh in rushing offense (averaging 126.6 yards), 15th in scoring offense (24.1 points per game), 17th in total offense (averaging 345.1 yards) and 23rd in passing offense (202.8 yards).

Total Trends

The 49ers have toppled the Over 23 times in their last 46 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 (minus-$120). The Titans have been more successful during the same timeline of regular-season games, going 29-16-1 with the Over ($1240). All combined, that’s a 52-38-2 track record with the Over ($1020) or, if betting the Under, minus-$1,920. In 2021, San Francisco and Tennessee are both 7-7 with the Over for a combined 14-14 (minus-$140). Chronicling the last five head-to-head meetings, the 49ers and Titans own combined averages of 51.6 points per game — well above Thursday’s total. Also, the Over is 12-1 ($1080) when counting the last 13 games in which the Titans were moneyline underdogs of +250 or less. (The Titans are currently at +150.)