Thursday Night Football Trends: Week 13

Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints carries the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field on October 25, 2021 in Seattle, Washington.
Image Credit: Steph Chambers/Getty Images


Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints

(Line: NO +4.5, O/U 47.5)

Dallas Cowboys

Among the relevant trends here, the Cowboys are 31-28 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $20 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Dallas enjoyed solid ATS marks against NFC competition (23-19, $210), facing teams with losing records (16-11, $390) and when kicking off in the Central or Mountain time zones (20-15, $350). The ATS numbers for 2021 are similarly stellar, with the Cowboys going 8-3 overall ($470), 4-1 on the road ($290), 5-2 as the betting favorite ($280) and 6-0 versus NFC teams ($600). Also, Dallas has a 7-1 ATS record from the last eight times it accrued three or more red-zone possessions the previous week ($590). Conversely, the Cowboys are 1-7 with the Over when charting the last eight times the team passed for 250-plus yards the previous game (minus-$670). For the season, the Cowboys rank first overall in total offense (419.8 yards per game), third in passing offense (292.4 yards per week), third in scoring offense (29.6 points per game) and seventh in rushing offense (127.5 ground yards per week). On defense, Dallas ranks 27th against the pass, allowing 262.3 airborne yards per game.

New Orleans Saints

Factoring in recent trends, the Saints are 35-24 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $860 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, New Orleans posted strong ATS results when representing the betting underdog (12-4, $760) and taking on NFC competition (27-17, $830). The ATS numbers for 2021 are a mixed bag, at 5-6 overall (minus-$160), 2-3 at home (minus-$130) … but also 4-2 as the betting underdog ($180). Entering Week 13, the Saints boast the league’s No. 3 rush defense, allowing only 91.9 ground yards per game. The offense, however, merely ranks 18th in scoring offense (23.4 yards per week), 19th in rushing offense (111.2 yards per game), 27th in passing offense (198.2 yards per week) and 27th in total offense (309.4 yards per game).

Total Trends

The Cowboys have toppled the Over 25 times in their last 43 games dating back to 2019 ($520). The Saints have been similarly productive during the same timeline of regular-season games, going 24-18-1 with the Over ($420). All combined, that’s a 49-36-1 track record with the Over ($940) or, if betting the Under, minus-$1,790. In 2021, Dallas and New Orleans are both 6-5 with the Over for a combined 12-10 ($100). Citing other trends, the Saints are 4-1 with the Over against the Cowboys ($290), when chronicling the last five times New Orleans notched less than 400 total yards the previous week. Conversely,the Saints have failed to hit the Over in their last 10 games on Thursday night (minus-$1100).