Sunday Night Football Trends: Week 4

Tom Brady has won 32 of 35 games against the Bills, the Buccaneers' Week 14 opponent.
Image Credit: Max Gersh / USA TODAY NETWORK

WEEK 4: SUNDAY @ 8:20 pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots, (Line: +7, O/U 49)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Among the relevant trends here, the Buccaneers have a 10-9 regular-season record against the spread (ATS) since 2020, otherwise known as the Tom Brady era. That’s $10 from a straight $110 bet. In that same period, Tampa Bay has posted middling ATS marks with being the betting favorite (8-8 … minus-$80) and when playing on the road (4-5 … minus-$150).

For primetime games during the Brady era, the Buccaneers have an 0-5 record with ATS (minus-$550). After three weeks of 2021 play, the high-octane Bucs rank first in scoring offense (34.3 points per game, tied with Arizona), second in passing offense (averaging 349.7 yards per week), eighth in total offense (406.0 yards per game) … but only 31st in rushing offense, averaging 56.3 ground yards per game.

New England Patriots

Among the relevant trends, the Patriots have a 25-25-1 ATS record (minus-$250) over the last three-plus seasons (including Tom Brady’s time with the franchise). For this period of regular-season outings, New England essentially popped above .500 with ATS at home (14-11-1 … $180), serving as the betting underdog (4-4 … minus-$40) and facing NFC competition (7-6 … $40).

For primetime games since 2018, the Patriots are 7-9 overall (minus-$290), 1-4 as the betting underdog (minus-$340), but also 5-2 at home ($280). Three weeks into the 2021 season, the sluggish Patriots rank 21st in passing offense (226.0 yards per game), 24th in rushing offense (averaging 91.7 yards per week), 24th in total offense (317.7 yards per game) and 27th in scoring, generating only 18.0 points per game.

Total Trends

The Buccaneers have toppled the Over 23 times in their last 35 games, including one push, dating back to the 2019 season ($1090). The Patriots have experienced inverse results during the same span of regular-season games, going 12-22-1 with the Over (minus-$1,220). All combined, that’s a 35-33-1 track record with the Over (minus-$130, or if betting the Under, minus-$550).

In other notable trends, the Bucs are 12-1 with the Over, when charting their last 13 games of traveling more than 1,000 miles ($1090). Conversely, Tampa Bay has a 1-8 ATS record with its last nine games when averaging 30-plus points for that season (minus-$880). The Patriots are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games when averaging fewer than 20 points ($1,090). However, New England has a 1-7 record with the Over in its last eight games of outgaining an NFC South opponent by less than 130 yards (minus-$660).