Sunday Night Football Trends: Week 18

Austin Ekeler #30 of the Los Angeles Chargers looks on prior to the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on November 7, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Image Credit: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images


Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

(Line: +3, O/U 49.5)

Los Angeles Chargers

Among the relevant trends, the Chargers are 30-32-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$520 from a straight $110 bet. For this period, Los Angeles endured mixed ATS marks when playing on the road (19-11, $690) … but also as the betting favorite (17-23-1, minus-$830) and facing AFC competition (20-25-2, minus-$750). The 2021 ATS numbers are somewhat bland, with the Chargers going 8-8 overall (minus-$80), 4-3 at home ($70) and 5-6 as the betting favorite (minus-$160). Also, the Chargers are 8-2 ATS when tracking the last 10 times their opponent scored 27 or fewer points the previous week ($580). Entering Week 18, LAC has the league’s sixth-worst scoring defense, allowing 26.5 points per game. Conversely, the Chargers offense ranks fourth in passing offense (277.8 yards per game), fourth in total offense (387.1 yards), sixth in scoring offense (27.6 points) and 20th in rushing offense (109.3 yards).

Las Vegas Raiders

Factoring in recent trends, the Raiders are 29-35 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$950 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Las Vegas had subpar ATS results when playing at home (15-17, minus-$370), facing AFC competition (22-25, minus-$570) and kicking off in the Pacific Time Zone (17-19, minus-$390). The ATS numbers for 2021 are also shaky, at 7-9 overall (minus-$290), 3-5 at home (minus-$250) and 5-5 versus winning clubs (minus-$50). In another trend, the Raiders are 3-13 ATS from the last 16 times their weekly opponent averaged more than four red-zone possessions for the season (minus-$1130). Las Vegas has the NFL’s third-worst takeaway differential (minus-11). The Raiders offense ranks sixth in passing offense (274.7 yards per game), 11th in total offense (364.9 yards), 19th in scoring offense (21.2 points per game) and 29th in rushing offense (90.2 yards).

Total Trends

The Chargers have eclipsed the Over 25 times in their last 48 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 ($80). The Raiders have fared considerably better during the same timeline, going 27-21 with the Over ($390). All combined, that’s a 52-43-1 track record with the Over ($470) and, if betting the Under, minus-$1,420. This season, L.A. and Las Vegas are 9-6-1 and 7-9 with the Over for a combined 16-15-1 (minus-$50). Citing other trends, the Chargers have failed to hit the Over the last nine times they passed for fewer than 350 yards the previous week (minus-$990). Also, the Under is 6-0 when chronicling the last six head-to-head matchups in which the Raiders were averaging less than 110 rushing yards per game ($600).