Sunday Night Football Trends: Week 16

Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys throws a pass against the Washington Football Team during the fourth quarter at FedExField on December 12, 2021 in Landover, Maryland.
Image Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images


Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys

(Line: DAL -10.5, O/U 47)

Washington Football Team

Among the relevant trends, Washington is 28-32-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$720 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, WFT posted underwhelming ATS marks when playing on the road (16-14-1, $60), facing NFC competition (22-22-1, minus-$220), and serving as the betting underdog (24-24-2, minus-$240). The 2021 ATS numbers are even worse, with Washington going 5-8-1 overall (minus-$380), 4-6-1 as the betting underdog (minus-$260), and 0-2 when kicking off in the Central Time Zone (minus-$220). Washington ranks 14th in rushing offense (118.3 yards per game), 20th in total offense (329.1 yards), 21st in passing offense (210.9 yards), and 23rd in scoring offense (20.2 points per game). The WFT defense has a similarly shaky ranking with scoring defense (25th overall), allowing 25.1 points per game.

Dallas Cowboys

Factoring in recent trends, the Cowboys are 34-28 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $320 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Dallas enjoyed solid ATS results when playing at home (17-13, $270), facing teams with losing records (18-11, $590), and encountering NFC competition (26-19, $510). The 2021 ATS numbers are also robust, at 11-3 overall ($770), 8-2 as the betting favorite ($580), and 9-0 versus NFC opponents ($900). Citing other trends, Dallas has a 10-1 ATS record ($890) when charting the last 11 times the team passed for fewer than 300 yards the previous game. Conversely, the Cowboys are 1-6 ATS versus Washington (minus-$560), when chronicling the previous seven times in which Dallas had been a moneyline favorite beyond -350. (The Cowboys are -480.) Entering Week 16, Dallas has forced the most takeaways of any defense (31). The Cowboys offense ranks first with total offense (403.3 yards per game), second in scoring offense (28.6 points per game), sixth in rushing offense (128.2 yards), and sixth in passing offense (275.1 yards).

Total Trends

Washington has eclipsed the Over only 19 times in its last 46 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 (minus-$960). The Cowboys have been more successful during the same timeline of regular-season action, going 25-21 with the Over ($190). All combined, that’s a 44-47-1 track record with the Over (minus-$770) or, if betting the Under, minus-$140. In 2021, Washington and Dallas are both 6-8 with the Over for a combined 12-16 (minus-$560). Counting the last seven head-to-head meetings, Washington and Dallas own combined averages of 48.3 points per game — slightly above Sunday’s 46.5 total. The Under has prevailed in Washington’s last 10 games of an opponent carrying a winning percentage of .700 or higher ($1000). Conversely, the Over is 0-8 from the last eight times WFT had a losing streak of two or more games (minus-$880).