Sunday Night Football Trends: Week 15

Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throws the ball during the first half against the Washington Football Team at FedExField on November 14, 2021 in Landover, Maryland.
Image Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images


New Orleans Buccaneers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(Line: TB -10.5, O/U 46.5)

New Orleans Saints

Among the relevant trends, the Saints are 36-25 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $850 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, New Orleans enjoyed robust marks when playing on the road (22-9, $1010), representing the betting underdog (12-5, $650) and encountering NFC competition (27-18, $720). The ATS numbers for 2021 are pedestrian, with the Saints going 6-7 overall (minus-$170), 3-3 versus winning clubs (minus-$30) and 3-6 against NFC foes (minus-$360). With another trend, New Orleans has a 7-1 ATS from the last eight times its opponent had a home winning streak of three or more games ($590). The Saints own the NFL’s No. 6 rush defense, allowing 95.0 ground yards per game. The New Orleans offense ranks 14th in rushing offense (121.5 yards per game), 16th in scoring offense (23.4 points per game), 23rd in total offense (319.4 yards) and 29th in passing offense (197.9 yards).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Factoring in recent trends, the Buccaneers are 29-29-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$290 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Tampa Bay endured shaky ATS results when playing at home (14-14-2, minus-$140), facing NFC foes (20-24-1, minus-$640) and representing the betting favorite (17-19-1, minus-$390). The ATS numbers for 2021 are tangibly better, at 7-6 overall ($40), 7-6 as the betting favorite ($40) and 5-1 when playing at home ($390). The Bucs have a 1-7 ATS record from their last eight primetime games (minus-$670). Entering Week 15, Tampa Bay boasts the league’s No. 3 rush defense, giving up 91.9 ground yards per game. The Bucs’ vaunted offense ranks first in passing offense (314.2 yards per game), first in total offense (410.2 yards), first in scoring offense (31.5 points per game) and 25th in rushing offense (96.0 yards).

Total Trends

The Saints have surpassed the Over 24 times in their last 45 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 ($200). The Bucs have been markedly better during the same timeline of regular-season games, going 27-17-1 with the Over ($830). All combined, that’s a 51-37-2 track record with the Over ($1030) or, if betting the Under, minus-$1,910. In 2021, New Orleans and Tampa Bay are 6-7 and 7-6 with the Over for a combined 13-13 (minus-$130). Chronicling the last five head-to-head meetings, the Saints and Bucs posted combined averages of 52.4 points per game — well below Sunday’s 46.5 total. Citing other trends, the Saints are 2-8 with the Over from the last 10 times their weekly opponent averaged more than 250 yards passing per game (minus-$680). Also, the Bucs are 5-0 with the Over against the Saints ($500), when tracking the last five meetings with an Over/Under total of 49.5 or lower.