Sunday Night Football Trends: Week 14

Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates after beating the Washington Football Team 24-10 in the game at Lambeau Field on October 24, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Image Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images


Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

(Line: GB -12.5, O/U 43)

Chicago Bears

Among the relevant trends here, the Bears are 27-32-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$820 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Chicago posted underwhelming ATS marks when facing NFC competition (20-22-1, minus-$420), representing the betting underdog (14-18, minus-$580) and playing on the road (13-17, minus-$570). The ATS numbers for 2021 are similarly shaky, with the Bears going 4-8 overall (minus-$480), 2-4 on the road (minus-$240), 3-5 versus teams with winning records (minus-$250) and 2-7 as the betting underdog (minus-$570). Also, Chicago has dropped its last seven ATS meetings with Green Bay, when the Packers carried four or less defeats into that week (minus-$770). Chicago’s defense has forced the NFL’s fourth-fewest takeaways this season (11). The Bears’ sporadic offense ranks eighth in rushing offense (125.1 yards per game), 30th in total offense (298.8 yards), 30th in scoring offense (16.8) and dead-last in passing offense (173.8).

Green Bay Packers

Factoring in recent trends, the Packers are 36-23-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $1,070 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Green Bay enjoyed robust ATS results as the betting favorite (25-17, $630), taking on NFC competition (25-19-1, $410) and when playing at home (19-10, $800). The ATS numbers for 2021 are just as stellar, at 10-2 overall ($790), 5-0 at home ($500), 2-0 versus bottom-five offense ($200) and 6-2 as the betting favorite ($380). Also, Green Bay has posted eight straight ATS victories when the team’s averaging more than 22 points per game ($800). Entering Week 14, Green Bay has the NFL’s fifth-ranked scoring defense, allowing averages of 20.2 points. The Packers offense ranks ninth in passing offense (248.3 yards per game), 15th in total offense (355.0 yards), 15th in scoring offense (23.6 points) and 21st in rushing offense (106.7 yards).

Total Trends

The Bears have surpassed the Over only 18 times in their last 44 games dating back to 2019 (minus-$1060). The Packers have also been treading water during the same timeline of regular-season games, going 19-25 with the Over (minus-$850). All combined, that’s a 37-51 track record with the Over (minus-$1910) or, if betting the Under, $1,030. In 2021, Chicago and Green Bay are both 4-8 with the Over for a combined 8-16 (minus-$960). Citing other trends, the Bears are 10-2 with the Under ($780) when charting their last 12 games of being a moneyline underdog beyond +300. (The Bears are currently +480.) Also, the Packers are 1-9 with the Over against the Bears, when tracking the last 10 times Green Bay outscored its previous opponent by less than 20 points (minus-$890).