SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: WEEK 12
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
(Line: BAL -3.5, O/U 47)
Among the relevant trends here, the Browns are 26-32-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$920 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Cleveland had marginal ATS marks against AFC competition (16-26-1, minus-$1260), when playing on the road (13-16, minus-$460) and facing teams with winning records (9-19-1, minus-$1190). The ATS numbers for 2021 are a mixed bag, with the Browns at 5-6 overall (minus-$160), 3-4 versus AFC competition (minus-$140) … but also 3-2 on the road ($80). Cleveland owns the No. 4 ranking in total defense, yielding weekly averages of 316.7 scrimmage yards. The Browns offense ranks first in rushing offense (156.8 yards per game), 12th in total offense (362.5 yards per week), 19th in scoring offense (22.2 points per game) and 25th in passing offense (205.6 yards per week).
Factoring in recent trends, the Ravens are 32-24-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $560 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Baltimore produced solid ATS results when playing in the Eastern Time Zone (25-22-2, $80) and taking on AFC competition (26-16-1, $840). The ATS numbers for 2021 are less encouraging, at 4-6 overall (minus-$260), 2-3 at home (minus-$130) and 2-6 as the betting underdog (minus-$460). Also, the Ravens are 7-1 ATS from the last eight times their weekly opponent’s implied odds for victory were more than 30% ($590). On the flip side, Baltimore has an 0-6-1 mark versus Cleveland (minus-$660), when tracking the last seven times the Ravens collected fewer than 300 total yards the previous week. Baltimore boasts the league’s No. 2 rush defense, allowing 88.6 ground yards per game. The Ravens offense ranks third in rushing offense (151.0 yards per week), third in total offense (402.6 yards per game), 11th in passing offense (251.6 yards per week) and 14th in scoring offense (24.7 points per game).
The Browns have eclipsed the Over 23 times in their last 43 games dating back to 2019 ($100). The Saints have been less productive within the same timeline of regular-season action, going 21-21 with the Over (minus-$210). All combined, that’s a 44-41 track record with the Over (minus-$110) or, if betting the Under, minus-$740. In 2021, Cleveland and Baltimore are 6-5 and 5-5 with the Over for a combined 11-10 ($0). Citing other key trends, the Browns are 9-2 with the Over ($680) from the last 11 times their pregame over/under was 45.5 points or higher. Conversely, Cleveland is 0-5 with the Over against Baltimore (minus-$550), when tracking the last five times the Browns had three or fewer red-zone possessions the previous week.