SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: WEEK 10
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
(Line: LVR +2.5, O/U 52)
Kansas City Chiefs
Among the relevant trends here, the Chiefs are 29-27-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$70 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Kansas City produced mixed ATS results when facing AFC competition (23-18, $320), serving as the betting favorite (23-25, minus-$450) and playing on the road (17-10-1, $600). The ATS numbers for 2021 are more discouraging, with the Chiefs enduring a 2-7 overall record (minus-$570), 2-7 mark as the betting favorite (minus-$570) and 0-5 record against AFC competition (minus-$550). Citing other notable trends, Kansas City has a 16-3 ATS record when tracking the team’s last 19 times of averaging fewer than 400 total yards per game during a season ($1270). Conversely, the Chiefs are 0-8 ATS (minus-$880) from their last eight games of scoring 16 or fewer points the previous week. After nine weeks of play, the Chiefs offense ranks sixth overall in passing offense (281.0 yards per game), seventh in total offense (393.3 yards per week), 15th in rushing offense (112.3 ground yards per game) and 15th in scoring offense (24.6 points per week).
Las Vegas Raiders
Among the relevant trends here, the Raiders are 26-30 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$700 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Las Vegas posted middling ATS marks when playing at home (14-14, minus-$140), taking on AFC competition (20-21, minus-$310) and kicking off in the Pacific Time Zone (16-16, minus-$160). The ATS numbers for 2021 are similarly mediocre, at 4-4 overall (minus-$40), 2-2 at home (minus-$20) and 3-2 versus AFC foes ($80). In another notable trend, the Raiders are 1-7 ATS against the Chiefs, when chronicling Las Vegas’ last eight times of passing for 200-plus yards the previous week (minus-$670). Nine weeks into the season, the Raiders offense ranks second overall in passing offense (305.1 yards per week), sixth in total offense (394.5 yards per game), 16th in scoring offense (24.5 points per week) and 27th in rushing offense (89.4 ground yards per game).
The Chiefs have surpassed the Over just 20 times in their last 41 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 (minus-$200). On the flip side, the Raiders enjoyed a 24-16 record with the Over ($640) during the same timeline of regular-season action. All combined, that’s a 44-36-1 track record with the Over ($440) or, if betting the Under, minus-$1,240. In 2021, Kansas City and Las Vegas are 4-4-1 and 4-4 with the Over for a combined 8-8-1 (minus-$80). Charting the teams’ last five head-to-head meetings, the combined scoring averages shake out to 52.6 points per game — fractionally above this week’s over/under. Also, Las Vegas has a 9-0 record with the Over ($900), when tracking the last nine times its AFC West opponent had two or more red-zone possessions the previous week.