Steelers-Packers Trends: Week 4

Aaron Jones #33 of the Green Bay Packers runs with the ball in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Rams during the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lambeau Field on January 16, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Image Credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers (Line: -7, O/U 45.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Among the relevant trends here, the Steelers are 26-22-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $180 from a straight $110 bet. In that same period, Pittsburgh has also posted excellent ATS marks when facing NFC competition (9-3 … $570), playing on the road (13-10-2 … $200) and when serving as the betting underdog (14-3-1 … $1,070).

October has also been a robust ATS period for the Steelers, who are 7-1-1 overall ($590) and 3-0-1 as the betting underdog for this month since 2018 ($300).

After three weeks of 2021 action, the struggling Steelers rank 13th in passing offense (255.3 yards per game), 26th in total offense (averaging 308.3 per week), 28th in scoring offense (16.7 points per game) and last in rushing offense, averaging only 53.0 yards per game.

Green Bay Packers

Among the relevant trends, the Packers own a 28-22-1 ATS record from the last three-plus seasons ($380). For this period, the club also has positive ATS marks when playing at home (15-10 … $400), facing AFC competition (8-4 … $360) and representing the betting favorite (20-16 … $240).

For October matchups since 2018, Green Bay has produced solid ATS gains with an overall record (6-4 … $160) and when facing AFC teams (3-0 … $300).

Three weeks into the 2021 season, the Packers offense ranks 18th in scoring (22.7 points per game), 23rd in passing offense (averaging 222.0 yards per week), 27th in total offense (301.7 yards per game) and 30th in rushing offense (averaging 79.7 yards per week).

Total Trends

The Steelers have eclipsed the Over only 12 times in their last 35 games, including one push, dating back to the 2019 season (minus-$1220). The Packers have had marginally better success for this same period, going 17-18 with ATS (minus-$280). All combined, that’s a 29-40-1 track record with the Over (minus-$1500, or if betting the Under, plus-$810).

In other notable trends, charting their last 11 games of averaging three or fewer red-zone possessions, the Steelers are 10-1 when betting the Under ($890). From a logistics standpoint, however, Pittsburgh has an 0-8-1 record with the Over when traveling 300-plus miles (minus-$880). Green Bay has a 7-1 ATS mark from its last eight games of averaging 24 or fewer points ($590). Conversely, the Packers have a 1-8 record with the Under, when the club’s averaging less than 80 team rushing yards per week (minus-$780).