SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: WEEK 18
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
(Line: +4.5, O/U 43.5)
Among the relevant trends, the Cowboys are 35-29 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $310 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Dallas posted mixed ATS marks when playing on the road (17-15, $50), facing NFC competition (27-20, $500) … but also taking on teams with winning records (9-14, minus-$640). The ATS numbers for 2021 are far more encouraging, with the Cowboys going 12-4 overall ($760), 7-1 on the road ($590) and 10-1 against NFC foes ($890). In another trend, the Cowboys have covered the last 10 games in which their opponent carried a road winning streak of two-plus games ($1,000). Entering Week 18, the Dallas defense leads the NFL in interceptions (25) and takeaways (33). The Cowboys offense ranks first in scoring offense (29.9 points per game), second in total offense (402.8 yards per game), third in passing offense (281.0 yards) and 10th in rushing offense (121.8 yards).
Factoring in recent trends, the Eagles are 28-35-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2018. That’s minus-$1,050 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Philadelphia endured subpar ATS results when playing at home (14-16-1, minus-$360), facing NFC competition (21-25-1, minus-$650) and serving as the betting underdog (13-15, minus-$350). The 2021 ATS numbers are also underwhelming, at 8-7-1 overall ($30), 3-3-1 at home (minus-$30) and 4-5 as the betting underdog (minus-$150). Also, the Eagles have failed to cover their last five encounters with the Cowboys, when Philly’s pregame line went above +3 (minus-$550). Philadelphia owns the league’s No. 7-ranked rush defense, allowing 103.9 yards per game. The Eagles offense ranks first in rushing offense (160.4 yards), 13th in scoring offense (26.1 points per game), 14th in total offense (362.8 yards) and 22nd in passing offense (202.4 yards).
The Cowboys have toppled the Over 26 times in their last 48 games dating back to 2019 ($180). The Eagles have been less successful during the same timeline of regular-season games, going 24-24 with the Over (minus-$240). All combined, that’s a 50-46 track record with the Over (minus-$60) and, if betting the Under, minus-$900. This season, Dallas and Philadelphia are 7-9 and 9-7 with the Over for a combined 16-16 (minus-$160). Chronicling the last five head-to-head meetings, the Cowboys and Eagles own combined averages of 44.2 points per game — slightly above Saturday’s total. Regarding the Dallas-Philadelphia series, the Under is 1-4 when chronicling the last five times the Cowboys’ implied odds for victory were more than 65 percent (minus-$340). Conversely, the head-to-head series Over is 4-1 whenever Dallas is averaging less than 130 rushing yards per game ($290).