Raiders-Broncos Trends: Week 6

Javonte Williams #33 of the Denver Broncos celebrates scoring a touchdown in the second quarter of the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field At Mile High on November 28, 2021 in Denver, Colorado.
Image Credit: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images


Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

(Line: DEN -4, O/U: 44)

Las Vegas Raiders

Among the relevant trends here, the Raiders are 24-29 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$790 from a straight $110 bet. In that period, Las Vegas posted subpar ATS marks when playing on the road (11-15, minus-$550), facing an AFC opponent (19-21, minus-$410) and serving as the betting favorite (19-19, minus-$190).

The numbers for 2021 are similarly bland, with the Raiders owning a 2-3 ATS record (minus-$130), 1-1 as an ATS underdog (minus-$10) and 2-2 versus AFC opponents (minus-$20). In other notable trends, the Raiders are 6-0 ATS ($600) when counting their last six Broncos games with temperatures above 50 degrees. (Sunday’s kickoff temperature: 73 degrees.) Conversely, Las Vegas has a 1-5 ATS record against Denver (minus-$450), when tracking the Raiders’ last six times of having an ongoing streak of two or more losses.

After five weeks of play, the Raiders offense ranks fourth overall in passing offense (averaging 298.4 yards per game), 13th in total offense (377.0 yards per week), 19th in scoring offense (22.6 points per game) and 29th in rushing offense (78.6 yards per week).

Denver Broncos

The Broncos have endured middling ATS results over the last three-plus seasons. For that period, the club has a 27-25-1 overall ATS record (minus-$50), 12-13-1 mark at home (minus-$230) and 20-20 record versus AFC opponents (minus-$200).

For this season, Denver has a 3-2 ATS record overall ($80) and 3-2 mark as the betting favorite ($80). The Broncos are 11-0 in their last 11 Raiders games of being a moneyline favorite by less than -600 ($1100). On the flip side, Denver has fallen below the Over in its last 14 games against AFC West foes, when the Broncos tallied less than 400 total yards the previous week (minus-$1540).

Five weeks into the 2021 campaign, the Broncos offense ranks 12th in rushing offense (averaging 118.6 yards per game), 17th in total offense (357.8 yards per week), 21st in passing offense (239.2 yards per game) and 24th in scoring offense (20.4 points per week).

Total Trends

The Raiders have surpassed the Over in 22 of their last 37 games dating back to 2019 ($550). The Broncos, in turn, own a 16-21 record with the Over (minus-$710) during the same span of regular-season outings. All combined, that’s a 38-36 track record with the Over (minus-$160 or, if betting the Under, minus-$580).

This year, Las Vegas and Denver are 2-3 and 1-4 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 3-7 (minus-$430). Also, this week’s O/U tally of 44 comes with a slice of recent history. Charting the rivals’ last six meetings, the cumulative scoring averages shake out to 43.9 combined points.