MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: WEEK 9
Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers
(Line: PIT -6.5, O/U: 39)
Among the relevant trends here, the Bears are 26-29-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$590 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Chicago also subpar ATS marks when playing on the road (12-16, minus-$560), facing AFC competition (6-9, minus-$390), taking on teams with a winning record (10-15, minus-$650) and serving as the betting underdog (13-16, minus-$460). The ATS numbers for 2021 are similarly shaky, with the Bears owning a 3-5 overall record (minus-$250) and 1-5 mark as the betting underdog (minus-$450). Citing other notable trends, the Bears are 7-1 ATS when their last eight AFC North opponents racked up 200-plus total yards the previous week ($590). Conversely, Chicago has a 1-9 ATS mark from its last 10 games of being a betting underdog of more than three points (minus-$890). (The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog this game.) After eight weeks of play, the Bears offense ranks sixth overall in rushing offense (136.6 yards per game), 31st in scoring offense (15.4 points per week), 32nd in passing offense (127.4 yards per game) and also 32nd in total offense (264.0 yard per week).
The Steelers have endured middling ATS results over the last three-plus seasons. For this period, the team has a 28-24-3 overall record ($160), 14-13-1 mark at home (minus-$30), 11-12-2 versus teams with a losing record (minus-$220) and 12-20-2 record as the betting favorite (minus-$1000). The 2021 ATS numbers are also porous, including the 3-4 overall record (minus-$140), 1-3 mark at home (minus-$230) and 0-3 record as the betting favorite (minus-$330). In another notable trend, Pittsburgh has a 1-6-2 ATS record, when chronicling its last nine times of a weekly opponent averaging less than 0.3 points per play on the season. (Chicago’s averaging 0.27 points per play this year.) Eight weeks into this season, the Steelers offense ranks 17th overall in passing offense (244.4 yards per week), 24th in total offense (330.4 yards per game), 25th in scoring offense (18.9 points per week) and 28th in rushing offense (86.0 yards per game).
The Bears have surpassed the Over in just 16 of their last 40 games dating back to 2019 (minus-$1040). The Steelers are tangibly worse, posting a 14-24-1 record with the Over (minus-$1240) during the same timeline of regular-season action. All combined, that’s a 30-48-1 track record with the Over (minus-$3280) or, if betting the Under, plus-$1,500. For 2021, Chicago and Pittsburgh are 2-6 and 2-5 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 4-11 (minus-$810). Citing one positive trend, the Steelers are 8-1 with the Under ($690), when tracking their last nine of games of an opponent passing for less than 150 yards the previous week.