MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: WEEK 13
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
(Line: BUF -3, O/U 43)
New England Patriots
Among the relevant trends here, the Patriots are 32-27-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $230 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, New England endured mixed ATS marks when playing on the road (14-15, minus-$250), representing the betting underdog (6-5, $50) and kicking off in the Eastern Time Zone (30-20-1, $800). The ATS numbers for 2021 are more encouraging, with the Patriots going 8-4 overall ($360), 4-1 on the road ($290) and 5-2 versus AFC teams ($280). Also, New England has a 7-1 ATS record from the last eight times it notched 250-plus passing yards the previous game ($590). Conversely, the Patriots are 2-10 ATS from the last 12 times their opponent scored more than 28 points the previous game (minus-$900). For the season, New England’s defense ranks third overall against the pass, allowing only 200.9 yards per week. The Patriots offense ranks seventh in scoring offense (28.0 points per game), 12th in rushing offense (115.3 yards per week), 14th in passing offense (240.0 yards per game) and 14th in total offense (355.3 yards per week).
Factoring in recent trends, the Bills are 34-23-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s 870 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Buffalo posted solid ATS results when representing the betting favorite (18-13, $370), facing teams with winning records (13-8-1, $420) and taking on AFC competition (24-19-2, $310). The ATS numbers for 2021 are similarly strong, at 7-4 overall ($260), 3-2 at home ($80) and 6-4 as the betting favorite ($160). Also, Buffalo has a 12-1 ATS mark from the last 13 times it averaged fewer than 30 points per game ($1090). The Bills are averaging 29.6 points this season. Entering Week 13, Buffalo boasts the league’s No. 2 scoring defense, allowing 16.5 points per game. On the flip side, the Bills offense ranks second in scoring offense (29.6 points per week), fifth in total offense (289.3 yards per game), seventh in passing offense (271.0 yards per week) and 11th in rushing offense (118.3 yards per game). Josh Allen has struggled historically against the Patriots, averaging just 210 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns in five career games.
The Patriots have surpassed the Over only 18 times in their last 44 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 (minus-$950). The Bills have also been subpar during the same timeline of regular-season action, going 20-22-1 with the Over (minus-$420). All combined, that’s a 38-47-2 track record with the Over (minus-$1370) or, if betting the Under, $520. In 2021, New England and Buffalo are 6-6 and 5-6 with the Over for a combined 11-12 (minus-$220). Also, the Bills have a 1-6-1 record with the Under against the Patriots (minus-$560), when tracking the last eight times Buffalo produced four or more red-zone possessions the previous week.