MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: WEEK 11
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Line: TB -11, O/U 49.5)
New York Giants
Among the relevant trends here, the Rams are 29-27-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$70 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, New York posted mixed ATS marks when playing on the road (21-7, $1330), serving as the betting underdog (25-21, $190) and kicking off in the Eastern Time Zone (22-24-1, minus-$440). The ATS numbers for 2021 are also pedestrian, with the Giants sporting a 5-4 overall record ($60), 3-1 mark on the road ($190) and 3-3 record versus NFC foes (minus-$30). Citing other intriguing trends, the Giants are 10-2 ATS when charting their last 12 times of being an underdog of +8 or higher ($780). Conversely, New York owns a 2-11 ATS mark (minus-$1000), when tracking the last 13 times the Giants outscored their new opponent by more than five points the previous week. For the season, the Giants offense ranks 16th overall in passing offense (238.9 yards per game), 21st in total offense (334.8 yards per week), 24th in scoring offense (19.9 points per game) and 25th in rushing offense (95.9 yards per week). And since Week 7, New York’s emerging defense has surrendered only 39 points over three games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Factoring in recent trends, the Bucs are 25-29-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$690 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Tampa Bay had deflating ATS marks when playing at home (12-14-2, minus-$340), taking on NFC competition (18-24-1, minus-$840) and representing the betting favorite (13-19-1, minus-$790). The ATS numbers for 2021 are more encouraging, at 5-4 overall ($60), 4-3 versus NFC competition ($70) and 3-1 at home ($190). Citing another notable trend, Tampa Bay has an 0-6-2 ATS mark (minus-$660), when chronicling the last eight times it faced New York while averaging less than 150 rushing yards per game For the season, the Bucs’ dynamic offense ranks first overall in passing offense (315.6 yards per game), third in total offense (406.4 yards per week), third in scoring offense (31.0 points per game) and 27th in rushing offense (90.9 yards per week). Adding to the dominance, Tampa Bay owns the NFL’s ninth-best ranking with total defense (334.0 yards per game).
The Giants have eclipsed the Over only 16 times in their last 41 games, including two pushes, dating back to 2019 (minus-$930). Conversely, the Buccaneers trumpet a 25-15-1 record with the Over ($850) during the same timeline of regular-season games. All combined, that’s a 41-38-3 track record with the Over (minus-$80) or, if betting the Under, minus-$710. In 2021, New York and Tampa Bay are 3-5-1 and 5-4 with the Over for a combined 8-9-1 (minus-$190). Citing the last five head-to-head matchups, the Giants and Bucs combined for a cumulative average of 56.4 points per game — well above this week’s O/U. For another key trend, the Bucs are 7-1 with the Over ($590) when their weekly opponent has an ongoing road streak of two or more losses.