SUNDAY AFTERNOON: WEEK 10
Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos
(Line: DEN -2.5, O/U 45.5)
Among the relevant trends here, the Eagles are 24-33 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$1,230 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Philadelphia also posted subpar ATS marks when playing on the road (12-17, minus-$670), serving as the betting underdog (12-15, minus-$450), facing AFC competition (5-10, minus-$600) and encountering teams with a winning record (12-17, minus-$670). The ATS numbers for 2021 are marginally better, with the Eagles owning a 4-5 overall record (minus-$150), 3-5 mark as the betting underdog (minus-$250) and 3-2 record on the road ($80). After nine weeks of play, the Eagles offense ranks seventh overall in rushing offense (136.6 ground yards per game), 11th in scoring offense (25.2 points per week), 17th in total offense (346.1 yards per game) and 28th in passing offense (209.6 yards per week).
Among the relevant trends here, the Broncos are 29-27-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$70 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Denver yielded mixed ATS results when playing at home (13-14-1, minus-$240), representing the betting favorite (8-12-1, minus-$520) and taking on NFC competition (9-5-1, $350). The ATS numbers for 2021 are markedly better, at 5-4 overall ($60), 4-1 versus teams with a losing record ($290) and 3-0 against NFC competition ($300). Charting another notable trend, Denver has an 8-1 ATS record from the last nine times the Broncos had a per-game differential of less than 10 yards per game, compared to that week’s opponent ($690). Nine weeks into the season, the Broncos offense ranks 13th overall in rushing offense (113.2 ground yards per week), 18th in total offense (345.9 yards per game), 19th in passing offense (232.7 yards per week) and 22nd in scoring offense (20.8 points per game).
The Eagles have eclipsed the Over just 20 times in their last 41 games dating back to 2019 (minus-$200). The Broncos have been worse for the same timeline of regular-season games, going 17-24 with the Over (minus-$940). All combined, that’s a 37-45 track record with the Over (minus-$1250) or, if betting the Under, plus-$430. In 2021, Philadelphia and Denver are 5-4 and 2-7 with the Over for a combined 7-11 (minus-$510). Citing other notable trends, Philly has a 9-1 record with the Under ($790) when counting the team’s last 10 November games. Conversely, the Eagles are 0-11 with the Under (minus-$1210) from the club’s last 11 Sunday outings against the AFC West. Also, Denver has a 1-9 record with the Over, when chronicling the Broncos’ last 10 times of riding a winning streak of two or more games (minus-$890).