College Football Trends Report: Week 6

Sean Clifford #14 of the Penn State Nittany Lions drops back to pass against the Maryland Terrapins at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium on November 06, 2021 in College Park, Maryland.
Image Credit: G Fiume/Getty Images

The Red River Showdown highlights the Week 6 schedule in college football, but there’s also a pair of Top-25 clashes in the SEC. Here are BetPrep’s key trends for the biggest matchups in Week 6 of College Football.

No. 6 Oklahoma (-3.5) at No. 21 Texas, 12:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 63.5)

This will be the 24th consecutive Red River Showdown in which at least one team has been ranked. It’s the longest streak in the series in which at least one team has been ranked.

If you exclude the 2018 Big 12 Championship, each of the last seven regular season meetings have been one-possession games that were decided by eight points or fewer.

In last season’s Red River Showdown, the Longhorns trailed by 14 with roughly three-and-a-half minutes remaining in the game. Texas tied Oklahoma with 14 seconds left to force overtime and following four OTs, the Sooners outlasted the ‘Horns, 53-45.

Oklahoma Key Trends

The Sooners are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games versus the Longhorns.

Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.

The under is 4-1 in the Sooners’ last five conference games.

Texas Key Trends

The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams.

The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games when listed as the dog.

No. 13 Arkansas (+5.5) at No. 17 Ole Miss, 11:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 66.5)

Both of these teams suffered their first losses of the season in Week 5. Arkansas was routed 37-0 by Georgia, while Ole Miss was hammered by Alabama, 42-21. Neither team covered as double-digit underdogs.

Speaking of ‘Bama, the Tide held the Rebels to only 291 yards of total offense. That was the first time in 14 games under coach Lane Kiffin that Ole MIss failed to gain at least 400 yards of offense. In fact, the previous low under Kiffin was 442 yards, which ironically came at Arkansas last season. Matt Corral threw six interceptions in that loss.

Arkansas Key Trends

The Razorbacks have covered in seven of their last eight games versus the Rebels.

The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

The Hogs are an impressive 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.

Ole Miss Key Trends

The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five games between these two teams.

Ole Miss is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite.

The Rebels are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games.

No. 2 Georgia (-15.5) at No. 18 Auburn; (O/U: 46.5)

Georgia has scored 205 points this season while allowing only 23. The Bulldogs are the fifth team since 1950 to score at least 200 points while holding opponents to 25 or fewer through their first five games. Three of the last four teams that fit that category went on to win a national championship.

The Bulldogs’ defense has been incredible this season. They’re first in opponent points per game at 4.6, are first in points per game differential at +36.4, first in opponent yards per game at 177.8 and are first in yards per game differential at +254.8.

Georgia is the fourth SEC school in the past 15 seasons to allow fewer than 1,000 yards in its first five games. The other three went on to win the national championship (Alabama in 2012 and 2011, and LSU in 2007).

Georgia Trends

The Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings against Auburn.

Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

The Dawgs have covered in five of their last seven games as a favorite.

Auburn Key Trends

The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these two teams.

Auburn is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games.

The Tigers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.

No. 4 Penn State (+1.5) at Iowa, 4:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 41)

These two teams rank two and three, respectively, in scoring defense this season. Georgia ranks first at 4.6 PPG allowed, while Iowa is second at 11.6 PPG allowed and Penn State is third at 12.0 PPG allowed.

Speaking of defense, the Hawkeyes lead the FBS in interceptions at 12 and are tied for the FBS lead in turnover margin (+11).

Iowa has won 11-straight games, the third-longest active streak in the FBS behind Alabama (19) and Oklahoma (13). The Hawkeyes’ win over the Nittany Lions last season snapped a six-game skid against Penn State. PSU is 10-4 at Iowa in the AP Poll era (since 1936).

Penn State Key Trends

The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus the Hawkeyes.

The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

PSU is 6-0 ATS in its last six conference games.

Iowa Key Trends

The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.

The Hawkeyes have covered six of their last seven games overall.

Iowa is 5-2-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.