College Football Trends Report: Week 5

Matt Corral #2 of the Mississippi Rebels reacts after Snoop Conner #24 rushed for a touchdown against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half of the Chick-fil-A Kick-Off Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on September 06, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia.
Image Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

A pair of Top-25 battles in the SEC will take place this Saturday, as well as a compelling Top-10 matchup with potential playoff implications. Here are BetPrep’s key trends for the biggest matchups in Week 5 of College Football.

No. 8 Arkansas (+18.5) at No. 2 Georgia, 12:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 48.5)

The Razorbacks are 4-0 for the first time since 2003 and are ranked in the AP Top-10 for the first time since 2012.

Arkansas has beaten Georgia only twice in the last 11 meetings since joining the SEC. The Hogs’ last win over the Dawgs came in 2010 and they also accomplished the feat in 1993.

Since Kirby Smart became head coach in 2016, this will be the 15th time that Georgia has played an opponent in the Top-10. The Bulldogs are just 8-6 straight up in those 14 games.

Arkansas Key Trends

The road team has covered in four of the previous five meetings between these two teams.

The Razorbacks are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 conference games.

The Hogs are 11-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 14 games as an underdog.

Georgia Key Trends

The Bulldogs have covered in five of their last seven games overall.

Georgia is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games versus an opponent with a winning road record.

The Over has cashed in six straight UGA conference games.

No. 7 Cincinnati (-2) at No. 9 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 50.5)

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly won his 106th game last week in the Fighting Irish’s upset of Wisconsin at Soldier Field. With the victory, Kelly surpassed Knute Rockne for most wins in Notre Dame history.

The Fighting Irish have won 26 straight home games, which is the second-longest active streak behind Clemson (30). It is also Notre Dame’s second-longest home winning streak in the AP Poll era.

This is just the second meeting between these two schools since 1900. Notre Dame beat Cincinnati that year 58-0 in South Bend.

Cincinnati Key Trends

The Bearcats have covered in seven of their last 10 games overall.

Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference matchups.

The Over is 6-1 in the Bearcats’ last seven games as a road favorite.

Notre Dame Key Trends

The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when listed as a home underdog.

Notre Dame is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when facing an opponent with a winning record.

The Under is 5-1 in the Irish’s last six games as a home dog.

No. 12 Ole Miss (+14.5) at No. 1 Alabama; (O/U: 80)

The Crimson Tide enters play on Saturday on an 18-game winning streak, the longest active streak in the FBS.

Nick Saban is a perfect 23-0 against his former assistants, including a victory last year over his former offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin as the Tide routed the Rebels, 63-48.

In last year’s meeting, the teams combined for the most points (111) in a regulation game between SEC teams in conference history. It was also the most combined yards (1,370) in a game in SEC history.

Ole Miss Key Trends

The Rebels are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Tuscaloosa and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus the Tide overall.

Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.

The Over is 16-5 in the Rebels’ last 21 games following a win.

Alabama Key Trends

The Crimson Tide are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Alabama has covered in 10 of its last 14 games overall.

The Over is 9-4 in the Crimson Tide’s last 13 conference games.

No. 22 Auburn (+3.5) at LSU, 9:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 55.5)

Auburn has lost 10 straight road games against LSU dating back to 1999.

In last Saturday’s win over Mississippi State, Max Johnson became the first LSU quarterback to throw three touchdown passes of at least 40 yards in a single game since Rohan Davey accomplished the feat in 1999.

Former LSU QB TJ Finley could see time under center this weekend for Auburn. Finley started five games for the Tigers in 2020 before transferring to Auburn. He helped lead the Tigers to a late rally last weekend in a win over Georgia State.

Auburn Key Trends

The Tigers are winless ATS in their last four games as a road underdog and are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog either home or road.

Auburn is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.

The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games versus a team with a winning home record.

LSU Key Trends

The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.

LSU is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games played in October.

The Tigers have covered in nine of their last 13 games when favored.