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College Football Trends Report: Week 10

Brock Bowers #19 of the Georgia Bulldogs runs with the ball for his first touchdown during the first quarter against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vanderbilt Stadium on September 25, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee.
Image Credit: Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

The first rankings from the College Football Playoff selection committee were unveiled Tuesday night and the top 4 were Georgia, Alabama, Michigan State and Oregon, in that order. Which matchups this Saturday could impact those rankings? Here are BetPrep’s key trends for the biggest matchups in Week 10.

Missouri (+38) at No. 1 Georgia

12:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 59)

Georgia has dominated this series, winning the past seven meetings with Missouri, including the Bulldogs’ 27-0 shutout of the Tigers in 2019. This is the Dawgs’ second-longest active winning streak against an FBS opponent behind their 12-straight victories over Kentucky.

How is UGA so successful this season? The Bulldogs are allowing an SEC-low 226 yards per game this season and haven’t allowed a single opponent to gain more than 355 yards. By comparison, the Tigers have surrendered an SEC-high 476 yards per game in 2021 and haven’t held an opponent under 373 yards.

Missouri Key Trends

  • The Tigers are 7-23 against the spread in their last 30 road games.
  • Mizzou is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games overall.
  • The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games versus an opponent with a winning record.

Georgia Key Trends

  • The Bulldogs have covered in four of their last five games overall.
  • Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games.
  • The Bulldogs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in November.

No. 9 Wake Forest (+2.5) at North Carolina

12:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 76.5)

The Demon Deacons are ranked in the Top 10 of the AP Poll for the first time in program history. Their previous high? It was 11th, all the way back in 1947.

Even though this matchup is between two conference opponents, this is actually a non-conference game. It’s the second non-conference game between ACC teams since the league formed in 1953. The first matchup was recent, in fact, as these same two teams played in Winston-Salem in 2019 with the Demon Deacons holding on for a 24-18 victory.

Wake Forest Key Trends

  • The Demon Deacons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Chapel Hill.
  • Wake Forest is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog.
  • The Over is 5-1 in the Deacons’ last six road games.

North Carolina Key Trends

  • The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
  • The Tar Heels are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Chapel Hill.

No. 13 Auburn (+4.5) at No. 14 Texas A&M

3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 49)

The road team has dominated this series in recent meetings, winning eight of the last nine times Auburn and Texas A&M have played. While the Tigers are 3-10 in true road games against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the 2015 season, two of their three wins came in College Station.

According to ESPN Stats & Informational Group, Jimbo Fisher is just 2-7 in AP ranked matchups since becoming the Aggies’ head coach in 2018 (i.e. both teams were ranked). Both of his wins against AP ranked opponents came last season when the Aggies knocked off Florida 41-38 in the regular season and then beat North Carolina 41-27 in the Orange Bowl.

Auburn Key Trends

  • The road team has covered in eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams.
  • The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in College Station.
  • The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams.

Texas A&M Key Trends

  • The Aggies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
  • A&M is 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference games.
  • The under is 9-3 in the Aggies’ last 12 games following a bye.

LSU (+28.5) at No. 2 Alabama

7:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 66)

This is the first time in 14-straight meetings between these two teams that both are not ranked in the AP Poll. The Tigers are now 9-9 in the two seasons since winning the national championship.

LSU Trends

  • The Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the Crimson Tide.
  • The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.
  • The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Alabama Key Trends

  • The Crimson Tide are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.
  • ‘Bama is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 conference games.
  • The Over is 5-2 in the Tide’s last seven games overall.