SATURDAY: WEEK 16
Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers
(Line: GB -7.5, O/U 46)
Among the relevant trends, the Browns are 27-34-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s minus-$1,040 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Cleveland posted subpar ATS marks when playing on the road (13-17, minus-$570), representing the betting underdog (14-14, minus-$140) and facing teams with winning records (9-21-1, minus-$1410). The ATS numbers for 2021 are also pedestrian, with the Browns going 6-8 overall (minus-$280), 3-3 as the betting underdog (minus-$30), 3-3 on the road (minus-$30) and 2-6 versus winning teams (minus-$460). Entering Week 16, Cleveland has the league’s No. 8 pass defense, allowing 216.1 passing yards per game. On the flip side, the Browns offense ranks fourth in rushing offense (139.6 yards per game), 19th in total offense (341.1 yards), 19th in scoring offense (20.9 points per game), and 25th in passing offense (201.5 yards).
Green Bay Packers
Factoring in recent trends, the Packers are 37-24-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $1,060 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Green Bay enjoyed superb ATS results when playing at home (20-10-1, $900), encountering AFC opponents (11-5, $550), serving as the betting favorite (26-18, $620), and kicking off in the Central Time Zone (27-12, $1380). This year’s ATS numbers are similarly stellar, at 11-3 overall ($770), 7-3 as the betting favorite ($370), and 6-0 at home ($600). In another trend, the Packers have covered the spread the last 10 times they didn’t reach 350 total yards the previous week ($1000). Green Bay has the No. 9 pass defense, giving up 217.8 airborne yards per game. The Packers offense ranks ninth in passing offense (averaging 253.6 yards), 13th in scoring offense (25.6 points per game), 14th in total offense (360.4 yards), and 21st in rushing offense (106.8 yards).
The Browns have surpassed the Over 24 times in their last 46 games dating back to 2019 (minus-$20). The Packers have been less stable during the same timeline of regular-season games, going 21-25 with the Over (minus-$650). All combined, that’s a 45-47 track record with the Over (minus-$670) or, if betting the Under, minus-$250. In 2021, Cleveland and Green Bay are 7-7 and 6-8 with the Over for a combined 13-15 (minus-$350). In other trends, the Browns are 10-2 with the Over ($780) when their opponent’s averaging more than 22 points per game. Also, the Under is 1-7 with Cleveland’s last eight meetings against the NFC North, when the Browns rushed for fewer than 125 yards the previous week (minus-$670). Also, the Packers have a 2-8 record with the Under ($680) when counting the last 10 times Green Bay had a home winning streak of six or more games.