Sunday Afternoon: Week 18
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
(Line: -4.5, O/U 44.5)
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are 30-34 against the spread (ATS) since 2018. That’s minus-$740 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, San Francisco endured ugly ATS marks when encountering teams with winning records (14-15, minus-$250), facing NFC competition (19-28, minus-$1180) and kicking off in the Pacific Time Zone (18-26, minus-$1060). The ATS numbers for 2021 are marginally better, with the Niners going 8-8 overall (minus-$80), 4-4 on the road (minus-$40) and 5-6 versus NFC foes (minus-$160). Also, the 49ers are 7-1 ATS from the last eight times they scored 30 or fewer points the previous game ($590). On the flip side, San Francisco has a 2-8 ATS mark from the last 10 times the team collected 400-plus yards the previous week (minus-$680). Entering Week 18, San Fran boasts the league’s No. 5-ranked pass defense (206.8 yards per game). The Niners offense ranks seventh in rushing offense (126.9 yards), 10th in total offense (371.1 yards), 12th in passing offense (244.2 yards) and 14th in scoring offense (25.0 points per game).
Los Angeles Rams
Factoring in recent trends, the Rams are 34-28-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That’s $320 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Los Angeles posted solid ATS results when playing at home (16-13-2, $170), serving as the betting favorite (28-24-2, $160) and facing NFC competition (28-18-1, $820). In other trends, Los Angeles has failed to cover the last eight times it was a moneyline favorite of -300 or lower (minus-$880). The Rams are currently -214. Also, the Rams have a 7-1 ATS mark from the last eight times their weekly opponent rushed for 125-plus yards the previous game ($590). Los Angeles has the league’s 15th-ranked scoring defense (21.6 points per game). The Rams offense, however, ranks fifth in passing offense (277.6 yards), sixth in total offense (378.8 yards), 10th in scoring offense (27.3 points) and 24th in rushing offense (101.2 yards).
The 49ers have surpassed the Over just 23 times in their last 48 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 (minus-$340). The Rams have fared even worse during the same timeline of regular-season games, going 19-28-1 with the Over (minus-$1180). All combined, that’s a 42-52-2 track record with the Over (minus-$1520) or, if betting the Under, plus-$580. This season, San Francisco and Los Angeles 7-9 and 8-7-1 with the Over for a combined 15-16-1 (minus-$260). Also, the last five head-to-head meetings have yielded combined averages of 43.2 points per game — just below Sunday’s total.